(This article was originally published by Politico.com on November 19, 2007)

As recent reports about “push polling” on Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s religious affiliation make their way through the newspapers and the blogosphere, I thought it might be helpful to provide a brief pollster’s guide to what constitutes a push poll and what doesn’t.

Push polls are not polls, in that they don’t really seek people’s opinions. In fact, the purveyors of push polls not only don’t really care how the respondents answer the questions they ask, they usually don’t even record them. Push pollers care only about conveying negative information about a candidate under the guise of conducting a public opinion poll.

Push polls are generally very short — no longer than three or four questions, usually lasting less than one minute on the phone.

Push polls contact thousands of voters with their negative message. They don’t “sample” public opinion; they try to change it.

Push polls generally occur very close to Election Day, to make it more difficult to track down the initiator of the push polls.

Public opinion polls sometimes ask message questions that convey positive or negative information about candidates, even about their own candidate. Campaigns then use this information to determine which messages have the most traction with voters.

Testing negatives about candidates on a public opinion poll doesn’t make that instrument a push poll.

Public opinion polls can be as long as 20 or 25 minutes, or as short as five or six minutes. And during such polls, voters are asked demographic information, such as their age, education or partisan affiliation. That’s not the case with push polls.

Public opinion polls scientifically sample voters in a specific constituency, such as a state, county or congressional district. These polls usually include between 300 and 800 respondents.

Public opinion polls that test campaign messages are usually fielded days or weeks prior to the main media crush in a campaign, when candidates are going back and forth with TV ads and mailings.

Campaigns need to complete their research with sufficient time to digest the results and take action on what they’ve learned.

So if you think you’ve been push polled, ask yourself these three easy questions:

• Was I on the phone for more than three or four minutes?

• Did the caller ask me my age or party affiliation?

• Did the caller ask me more than five or six questions?

If the answer to these questions is yes, then in all likelihood you have not been push polled. Just polled.
Get over it.

One of the most interesting public polls I’ve seen this year was released last week by Quinnipiac University. The questionnaire went into detail on a number of issues, and the release included in-depth crosstabs, including partisan breakouts.

I’ve often made the case that when Independents are closer to Republicans than to Democrats on an issue, than it’s a good issue for Republicans (and obviously the converse is true for Dems). Indies being closer to GOPers hasn’t happened on many issues in the past four years (with the exceptions of illegal immigration, which wasn’t a vote motivating issue compared to the economy/Iraq, and increased domestic drilling, which dropped off when the economy tanked and gas prices dropped).

The poll shows the GOP continues to face a host of challenges. However, the Q-Poll provides some tips for GOPers on issue opportunities (should we call them Q-Tips?). We’ve been counseling patience for the GOP – and it appears opportunities are opening up. Here’s some of the results for questions where the opinions of Independents are closer to the opinions of GOPers than to Dems:

President Obama promised to cut the national deficit in half by the end of his four-year term. Do you believe he will keep this promise?

Tot Rep Dem Ind

Yes 38% 12% 63% 31%

No 55 85 28 62

(Note that there is a 19 point gap between GOP yes/Ind yes, compared to a 32 point gap between Ind yes/Dem yes.)

President Obama said he understands public frustration with the government help for private banks. But he said more than the 700 billion dollars already approved would be needed to keep the banks lending and getting the economy moving again. Do you support or oppose spending more than the 700 billion dollars on helping banks?

Tot Rep Dem Ind

Support 28% 13% 45% 21%

Oppose 66 84 46 73

(The GOP/Ind gap is just 8 points, while the Ind/Dem gap is 24 points.)

Congress has passed President Obama’s economic stimulus package which includes tax cuts and new federal spending of about 800 billion dollars. Do you support or oppose this economic stimulus package?

Tot Rep Dem Ind

Support 55% 23% 84% 49%

Oppose 39 72 11 45

(The GOP/Ind gap is a broader 26 points, but the Ind/Dem gap is an even wider 35 points.)

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s 75 billion dollar plan to help homeowners avoid foreclosure?

Tot Rep Dem Ind

Approve 57% 31% 83% 48%

Disapprove 35 59 12 43

(The gap continues, but keep in mind this does have pretty solid majority support.)

Some people say that President Obama’s plan to help homeowners avoid foreclosure isn’t fair to mortgage holders who make payments on time. Do you agree or disagree?

Tot Rep Dem Ind

Agree 64% 83% 48% 68%

Disagree 29 13 42 26

Anyhow, by now you get the picture – when analyzing issues for opportunities, look for cases where Independents are closer to the GOP than to the Dems. It’s clear that Independent voter doubts about spending and foreclosure issues are beginning to tip in a way that helps the GOP.

(It’s also clear that Obama’s numbers are buoyed by an incredible loyalty with his base. I think that if a pollster tested a question that read “President Obama’s plan for saving Medicare includes pushing four in ten of seniors off a cliff to save money,” 80% of Democrats would favor the plan.)