We Are Not Alone: Independents Are Starting To Think Like Us
Republicans can find some solace in the recent NPR national survey results that we are not alone. As Glen Bolger noted in his posting Independent’s Day, the GOP might now have a reason to believe.
What’s striking about this recent survey data is just how much closer Independents are to Republican voters on many key political barometers than they are to Democrats. Take the mood of the electorate, for example. While a solid majority of Democratic voters (54{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) believe the country is heading in the right direction, just 9{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Republicans and 18{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Independents are confident about the track we’re on.
Additionally, both Republicans and Independents hold distinctively negative views about the job Congress is doing. Only 16{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Republican and 20{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Independent voters approve of Congress’ performance to date, while 59{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Democratic voters give Congress a thumbs up.
Even when it comes to President Obama, Independents are fairly divided on the job he’s doing; fully 49{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve of Obama’s performance on the job, while a nearly equal 44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove. While not as negative as their Republican counterparts (24{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve – 67{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove), Independents are still light-years away from where Democrats are on the President (93{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve – 4{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove).
Since taking office two months ago, Obama’s approval numbers with Independents have slid 13 points, while his disapproval ratings have climbed 32 points with these voters (Gallup Poll, January 21-24: 62{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve – 12{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove). During that same time span, Republican approval of the President has dropped 17 points (from 41{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} to 24{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}), while Democratic approval has actually increased five points (from 88{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} to 93{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}).
And, the good news for Republicans (relatively speaking) doesn’t stop there. This same NPR National Survey shows the generic ballot tied overall (42{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} each), with Republicans enjoying a 14-point edge with Independent voters (38{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Republican – 24{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democrat). This comes on the heels of a Rasmussen poll that showed Democrats with slight overall generic edge (38{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Republican – 41{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democrat), but with Independents favoring the Republican candidate by 12 points (36{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} – 24{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}).
After two consecutive elections where Independents sided with Democrats by lopsided margins (voting +18 Democrat in 2006 and +8 in 2008 nationally), a tied generic ballot is reason enough for Republicans to be over the moon.
Before I get accused of propagating the equivalent of political crop circles, I do want to make one thing clear: this data certainly does not suggest all the Republicans’ problems have been solved. They haven’t. The issue environment continues to heavily favor Democrats and Republicans have yet to invent their own version of a standard issue neuralyzer (that handy memory eraser Tommy Lee Jones flashes in Men in Black). But, after two cycles of having no close encounters of the Independent kind, there is reason to believe the GOP could be a credible contender in 2010 (rather than a bunch of killer clowns from outer space).
I served on an Ad Hoc Committee of the American Association for Public Opinion Research that was formed in response to the controversy over the public polls in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. The Committee’s report was released today. Michael Traugott of the University of Michigan chaired the committee, and did yeoman’s work keeping the process going.
There were four factors the Committee found (out of a significant number examined) that could have contributed to the polls uniformly predicting (wrongly) an Obama win in the NH Dem primary. From the AAPOR press release:
Given the compressed caucus and primary calendar, polls conducted before the New Hampshire primary may have ended too early to capture late shifts in the electorate’s preferences there.
Most commercial polling firms conducted interviews on the first or second call, but respondents who required more effort to contact were more likely to support Senator Clinton. Instead of continuing to call their initial samples to reach these hard‐to‐contact people, pollsters typically added new households to the sample, skewing the results toward the opinions of those who were easy to reach on the phone, and who more typically supported Senator Obama.
Non‐response patterns, identified by comparing characteristics of the pre‐election samples with the exit poll samples, suggest that some groups who supported Senator Clinton–such as union members and those with less education–were under‐ represented in pre‐election polls, possibly because they were more difficult to reach.
Variations in likely voter models could explain some of the estimation problems in individual polls. Application of the Gallup likely voter larger error than was present in the unadjusted data. The influx of first-time voters may have had adverse effects on likely voter models.
It is important to point out — as the report does — that outside of the NH Dem primary, both primary and general election polling were on target this election cycle. However, it is worth reviewing and assessing the controversy. Pollsters continually need to reevaluate their methodologies and challenges, particularly in a world where so much is changing.
Our friend Mark Blumenthal, at the second best polling blog — pollster.com 😉 — wrote up a blog post well worth reading. Mark has some good links to other posts about the NH issues.
Pollster.com shows the trend in polls for the New York CD20 race between Jim Tedisco and Scott Murphy.
What makes the trend persuasive in this case is how consistent the polls have been in showing Murphy’s gains and Tedisco’s (more moderate) declines. While there are only five polls, the results for both candidates are remarkably close to the trend lines. And the trends aren’t affected by dropping any single poll. The NRCC poll done by Public Opinion Strategies in early February is just as close to the trend lines as the DCCC poll done by Benenson in late February- they differ due to the trend, not due to one being out of line with the rest of the data. Likewise the three Seina polls have shown the same close match to the trend line and a steady gain for Murphy and slow decline for Tedisco. It is this consistency across polls that makes the trend compelling.
Lear Pearce mentioned Steve Kinney and Gene Ulm’s post on his blog Cheat Seeking Missiles as he wonders whether the rising misery index is good news for Republicans.
Right now, the US misery index – that’s the unemployment index and the inflation index added together – is at 8.34 and rising . At the TQIA blog penned by my polling friend Steve Kinney and his business partner Gene Ulm, this is all explained.
Gerald F. Seib of Wall Street Journal’s Capitol Journal blog also mention’s Gene Ulm’s post.
Is misery good news for Republicans? Gene Ulmof the GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies suspects it is, and he’s starting to put together historical data to make the case.
In postings on his firm’s website, Ulm revives the “misery index,” that generation-old figure that combines the unemployment and inflation rates to attempt to show how badly adverse economic conditions are hitting Americans. “The current Misery Index (the unemployment and inflation rates combined) is 8.34 and rising,” he writes. “The unemployment rate alone was 8.1%.” But unemployment hasn’t peaked yet, he notes, which means the index surely is heading higher.
Bill McInturff is quoted by John Harwood in a New York Times article about President Obama’s trip to Europe.
Add the challenge of promoting a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan, and political strategists say there is no danger that Americans will confuse this trip with an escape from Mr. Obama’s principal responsibilities.
Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who advised Mr. McCain’s campaign, said focus groups among voters reveal one common conclusion: that the fortunes of the United States and the rest of the world were inextricably linked. “There’s not a single person who doesn’t understand that we live in a global economy,” Mr. McInturff said. “It’s a stretch to say he’s taking his eye off the ball.”
Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA) referred to a Public Opinion Strategies poll while discussing his SAFE commission legislation with the American Chronicle.
He pointed to a recent national survey by Peter Hart Associates and Public Opinion Strategies that looked specifically at public attitude toward America´s long-term finances. Some 56 percent of registered voters answered that a bipartisan commission rather than the regular congressional process is the best way to tackle the growing budget deficit and national debt, Wolf said.
Melvin Baker from All Headline News reports on the New York CD20 race and refers to a POS poll from February.
The latest Siena Research Institute poll found Murphy with 47 percent to Tedisco’s 43 percent. The poll was conducted March 25 and 26. A poll in early February by Public Opinion Strategies found Tedisco with 50 percent support while Murphy tallied well back with 29 percent.
Mike Leiby of the White Mountain Independent reports on the support of speed enforcement cameras in Arizona.
Smythe said that 65 percent of the public in Show Low has indicated support of photo enforcement.
“There is a vocal minority that gets all the press from the media and a silent majority that doesn’t,” he said. “But the bulk of citizens support law enforcement and its use of photo enforcement.” A January poll of registered Arizona voters by Public Opinion Strategies indicated 61 percent supported the use of speed enforcement cameras on freeways running through Arizona cities while 67 percent supported cameras on city streets.
Also, Pollster.com links to Nicole McCleskey’s post on the mood of the Western states here.
