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On Real Clear Politics, Stuart Rothenberg discusses the partisan interpretations of the recent NPR poll.

Nobody is under oath, so I suppose that it’s too much to expect “the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth,” especially when it comes to press releases, headlines and even reputable pollsters.

But I was disappointed to see how some of the results of a March Public Opinion Strategies/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of likely voters for National Public Radio were presented.

Yes, the two firms have very different partisan bents, but they collaborated on a national survey for NPR, a nonpartisan organization, so it’s reasonable to expect a certain level of analytical neutrality from both.

But if you only read about the NPR poll on the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Web site, you would have a seriously distorted view of the results of the survey.
Robert A. George of NBC News Dallas/Fort Worth writes about President Obama’s policy decisions and how the results of the NPR poll should be a warning sign to Democrats.

In the new National Public Radio poll conducted by the Democratic polling company Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and its Republican counterpart, Public Opinion Strategies, 42 percent of the 800 likely voters surveyed March 10 to 14 said that if the next congressional election were held today they would vote for the Republican candidate; an identical percentage of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic one. For several years, Democrats held a substantial lead on this question.

This could be what is often called an “outlier” poll. If so, it’s nothing for the White House and Democrats to worry about.  However, that there would be such numbers so early in the president’s term should be a warning sign. Independents — unlike hard-core ideologues of either party — tend  to be less concerned by cultural issues and more by bread-and-butter economic ones.

Rebekah Sanders from the Arizona Republic reports on a poll of local support for the Phoenix Coyotes

Support for the Phoenix Coyotes may be faltering among the team’s closest neighbors, the residents of Glendale, according to a poll released Wednesday by conservative think tank Americans for Prosperity.

Less than a quarter of Glendale voters surveyed said they would support spending taxpayer money to keep the financially struggling team from leaving the city’s Jobing.com Arena, the poll says.

But the survey appears to be partisan-driven and touches on a bailout scenario that city leaders say is off the table.

Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican survey research firm based in Virginia, conducted phone interviews with 300 Glendale voters on March 23.

Michael Barone of AEI mentions the results of the NPR survey

Last Wednesday, I noted that Republicans are now running even or slightly ahead in the generic vote for Congress in two respected national polls. On Friday, Charlie Cook noted the same results. He pointed out that the NPR survey shows Independents favoring Republicans 38-24 percent and that Republican pollster Glen Bolger says this is the first time Independents have favored Republicans since 2004.

Bonne Erbe of the Thomas Jefferson Street blog on U.S. News and World Report

I would like to chime in with my TJS colleague, Michael Barone, and offer my opinion on why Democrats are doing worse in generic polls than they were before the November elections

Tim Albrecht of the American Future Fund linked to Gene Ulm’s post here.



Public Opinion Strategies