Wow, I had no idea so many Americans were as fixated on Duke University’s basketball team as I am, mesmerized by their resurgence (5-0) since the insertion of Freshman guard Elliot Williams into the starting line-up.

I mean, how else can one explain the dramatic improvement in the “mood of the country” (right direction/wrong track question) on the most recent NBC News Wall Street Journal poll?

The data is pretty clear – in January, just 26% of Americans believed the nation was headed in the right direction, with 59% saying it was off on the wrong track; now, fully 41% of voters say the nation is headed in the right direction – the highest score in about four years!

But Coach K (R) still has plenty to worry about because what’s gone unnoticed about those positive mood numbers is that Democrats are TOTALLY behind them. That’s right, the surge in optimism is coming NOT from voters across the partisan board, but from partisan Democrats who are thrilled that their man has the Presidential reins.

Want proof? Pre-inaugural, Democrats believed the country was on the wrong track by 14 points; the current poll shows Democrats now saying things are going pretty well – 66% right direction/21% wrong track.

Some might find it interesting that as the economic news has gotten worse, Democrats’ optimism has surged. Do they ALL have rose-colored glasses? Anyway, so much for the Duke basketball/March Madness theory.

There’s a lot of interesting data in the NBC/WSJ poll, although much of it is good news for the Dems and sobering news for the GOP (there’s been so much sobering news the last four years I feel like drinking). However, one positive nugget for the GOP in the data deals with the economic stimulus package.

In January, 43% said that the economic stimulus legislation was a good idea, while 27% say it is a bad idea. Just one month later, “good idea” has stayed static at 44%, while “bad idea” has jumped nine points to 36%.

By party, Democrats are wildly optimistic – 66% say it is a good idea, while 14% say it is a bad idea. Independents are evenly divided (41% good idea/36% bad idea), while GOPers have become considerably more negative – moving from a skeptical point of view in January (26% good idea/42% bad idea) to a very negative view (14% good idea/70% bad idea).

Further, only 31% believe the stimulus package will help the American economy over the next twelve months a great deal (8%) or quite a bit (23%), while 66% say it will only help a little (51%) or not at all (15%). Given a longer term horizon of four years, only 37% say it will help a great deal/quite a bit, while 59% say it will only help a little or not at all.

Only 18% of Independents think it will help a great deal/quite a bit, which is only slightly higher than the 7% among GOPers.  In comparison, Dems are wildly optimistic (53%).  In polling, it is a good sign when opinion among Independents are much closer to your partisans than to your opposition’s partisans.

So while the GOP has been declared dead, but like in the famed Monty Python movie, they’re not dead yet – the messaging on the pork barrel spending in the stimulus package is starting to sink in. Fully 36% say their biggest concern with the stimulus package is “too much pork barrel spending,” while 21% each say there aren’t enough tax cuts to individuals, and 21% say spending is focused on the wrong areas.”

The battle hasn’t been won yet, as Independents are the key to winning the public opinion fight. But, a month of withering fire has significantly undermined public support for a very questionable policy.

There’s been much discussion recently about President Obama’s high job approval and popularity, with most folks (wrongly) assuming his job approval numbers are extraordinarily high. So, it’s time to set the record straight…

It’s true, clearly people like Barack Obama, as the President enjoys very high personal ratings. In this month’s NBC/WSJ poll that we co-direct, President Obama posts a 68{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} positive rating (47{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} very positive).

However, it is not true that his job approval ratings are unusually high. We simply have to look back at the last five presidents to understand that Obama’s approval rating is comparable to others during the first few weeks in office. In fact, President Carter enjoyed the highest approval ratings…and we all know how that ended up…

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Further, as Duke grad Neil Newhouse points out in his “March Madness” posting about the mood of the country, much of this is being driven by the base, with Democrats giving Obama an 88{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} job approval rating.

POS has a long tradition of monitoring and comparing “right direction/wrong track” data and job approval ratings. A president’s average job approval is usually 17-20 points above the country’s right direction rating. Earlier in February one of our national polls showed that gap was at 36 points (25{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} right direction, 61{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} job approval). This is not a sustainable range and we said at the time that two things could happen:

1) As “right direction” increases among Democrats, job approval stays in its current range;
…OR…
2) Obama’s job approval rating will decline by the end of the year to better mirror the country’s mood.

So far it seems like the first option is taking place with our recent NBC/WSJ poll showing a jump in right direction to 41{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} (mostly due to a 30-point jump among Democrats from last month) and job approval holding steady at 60{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}.

But, it’s still early days, March Madness still has to play out…and who knows how Duke’s performance is going to impact the mood, and more importantly, the President’s approval ratings…