Paul West of the Baltimore Sun quotes Glen Bolger in his article about the possible political change of tide.
“Republicans are in better shape now than we were in November or even January,” says Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster who conducts surveys for National Public Radio. “We’ve seen some modest movement for Republicans on party identification.”
That’s not to say that “suddenly, everything’s wonderful” for Republicans, he cautions. “It’s not like [voters] are in love with the Republicans.”
This quote is also mentioned in the Sun’s Maryland Politics blog here.
Kelly Davis of GoUpstate.com talks about the impact of raising the cigarette tax in South Carolina, pointing to the results of a January POS poll.
Increasing the cigarette tax is overwhelmingly popular with South Carolina voters. A poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies in December 2008 shows that 74 percent of South Carolina voters favor a 93-cents-per-pack cigarette tax as part of an effort to reduce tobacco use, particularly among kids, and to help fund state health care programs.
TheNewspaper.com reports that a Southern Louisiana town rejected traffic light cameras by an overwhelming margin and discusses the poll POS conducted in Arizona in January on traffic cameras.
In January, ATS hired Public Opinion Strategies to generate a similar survey showing 63 percent of Arizona voters supported speed cameras. Although traffic cameras frequently enjoy enthusiastic support in public opinion research sponsored by the industry, photo enforcement has never succeeded with voters on election day.
(This article was co-authored by Jim Hobart).
In a recent article in The New Republic, Jonathan Chait writes:
Obama has come into office having won the popular vote by seven percentage points, along with a 79-seat edge in the House, a 17-seat edge in the Senate, and massive public demand for change. But it’s already clear he is receiving less, not more, deference from his own party. Democrats have treated Obama with studied diffidence, both in their support for the substance of his agenda and (more importantly) their willingness to support it procedurally.
Democrat opposition to Obama’s agenda has been written about and analyzed quite frequently in the past few months, with everything from the progressive “net roots” wing of the party having too much sway to an inability of the Obama Administration to transition from campaigning to governing being blamed.
However, another possibility that is not mentioned as frequently is that while Obama may need the support of Dems in Congress, Dems in Congress don’t need Obama.
Despite all the talk this fall about “Obama’s coattails” carrying Dems to victory in competitive districts, a look at the election results in open seat districts won by the Dem candidate demonstrates that this was not the case.
In the 18 open seat districts won by Democrats this fall, the Dem Congressional candidate outperformed Obama by an average of 3.4% (56.2% to 53.2%). Thus, these freshman Dems, as well as their Democrat colleagues in Congress, are much more beholden to the voters in their district than to the President they, on average, out-performed.
Open House Seats Won by Dems
Average Dem Freshman Percentage
Average Obama Percentage
Average Difference
56.6%
53.2%
3.4%
Continuing to look at open seat districts won by Dems, but switching gears from Obama’s problems to GOP opportunities, a look at these seats reveals some top-tier Republican pick up opportunities. Whether it’s a GOP district where the Republican candidate was hurt by an expensive and bruising primary, like in Alabama 2 or Maryland 1, a district where the Dem’s performance lagged behind that of Obama, like in Ohio 15 or New York 25, or a district where the Dem replaced a scandal plagued GOPer, like in Arizona 1 or New York 13, Republicans certainly have some prime targets to begin chipping away at the sizable Dem majority in the House.
David Rogers of Politico quotes Neil Newhouse in an article about the new budget and President Obama’s activist role early on in his presidency.
Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster respected in both parties, said the jury is still out on how the public will finally respond to Obama’s activism. “My impression is he is taking ownership a lot earlier than he had to,” Newhouse said, and that it’s not without peril.
Independent surveys show the president retains strong approval ratings, but support for his economic policies is typically below his personal approval and has been slipping.
“Americans still want him to be successful, but there is a huge danger in what he is doing,” Newhouse said. “He is rushing to own the nation’s economy.”
Pennlive.com mentioned a January poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the 2010 Pennsylvania election for governor.
In a shocking finding released today (April 1, 2009) by Public Opinion Strategies, the vast majority of Americans (72%) say they believe the credit crisis is better described as a “bunch of baloney” rather than “real facts.” This shocking data cuts across every major demographic group and is evident in every region of the country, with Republicans leading the way at 84%.
The stunning lack of belief in one of the major financial news events of our lifetime appears to be based on daily, personal experience. Voters seemingly believe that with so many credit card offers arriving daily in the mail, there=s no way the country is facing a “credit crunch.”
In the same survey, voters told us that their mail consists more of “bills and credit card offers” (87%) than “letters and anything personally meaningful” (11%). In fact, voters reported receiving an average of 7.4 credit card offers a month, down only slightly from the 10.7 credit card offers they reported receiving a year ago and prior to the financial crisis.
In an open ended question about the issue, voters expressed a range of emotions from mild irritation to anger, but many of them drew a direct parallel between their credit card offers and the country’s continuing fiscal woes:
“My five year old received a credit card solicitation the other day”, vented one Mountain States woman. “I’ve got a good mind to send it to (Treasury Secretary) Geithner and show him the geniuses he’s giving billions of taxpayer dollars to… people who would give kindergarteners credit cards.”
“Credit crisis my foot”, complained a Northeastern man. “My shredder is stuffed with these offers – some from banks which apparently don’t know I am already a customer of theirs.”
The survey findings are drawn from interviews conducted APRIL FOOL’S DAY and are entirely FICTITIOUS.
