In The Weekly Standard, Gary Andres speculates about a possible GOP comeback in 2010, referring to the recent NPR poll and a quote from Glen Bolger’s blog post.
Some new indications suggest an improving environment for Republicans among independent voters. The first sign comes from a recent bipartisan poll conducted by National Public Radio (NPR). In a surprising result, the survey shows Republicans and Democrats in a virtual tie on the congressional generic ballot question (“Do you plan on voting for a Democrat or Republican in the next congressional election?”). GOP pollster Glen Bolger points out that the two parties tie despite a six-point party ID advantage for the Democrats. “The reason for the tie is simple,” Bolger writes on his blog. “Independents are moving toward the GOP.” The NPR survey finds Republicans leading on the generic ballot among independents (38%-24%) — a result one strategist joked “hasn’t occurred since the Lincoln Administration.” Bolger further notes the Republican position is now preferred among independents on taxes, energy, health care and the deficit.
Neil Newhouse was chosen to be a member of the University of Kansas Washington Semester Advisory Committee. The news release is posted on the University’s website.
In National Journal, Kevin Friedel talks about the Republicans’ improvement on the generic ballot question on the NPR survey.
Three recent polls show the GOP gaining ground on the generic ballot question, starting with an NPR survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D) that put the two parties exactly square: 42 percent for each. Independents, however, preferred the GOP, 39-30. Democrats led slightly overall, but trailed even worse among independents, in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll out last week that phrased the generic ballot question in terms of curtailing Democratic power.
The RedState blog also mentions the National Journal article here.
iReport mentions a Public Opinion Strategies/Hart Research poll commissioned by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation to determine Americans’ opinions of current fiscal policies.
Peter G. Peterson Foundation President David M. Walker was joined by Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) and Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R-VA) to discuss new findings of the most comprehensive study of public attitudes toward America’s fiscal policies since the economic downturn…
The survey was conducted among 1,008 registered voters from February 18-23 by leading pollsters Peter D. Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies and has a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
Peter Roff of U.S. News and World Report quotes Gene Ulm’s post about the Misery Index.
So what does this have to do with 2009? Pollster Gene Ulm, of the firm Public Opinion Strategies, recently published a memo that explains the potential political ramifications of the “Misery Index,” now 8.34 and rising with no sign it will peak anytime soon, in the upcoming off-year election.
“Of the 15 midterm elections held since 1950, 13 have been ‘change’ elections,” says Ulm, meaning the voters used the election as an opportunity to curb the behavior of the White House, to pull it back toward the center. The more prominent examples of change elections included the Republican gains in 1966 and 1994—which put a brake on the Johnson and Clinton legislative agendas—and the strong showing by the Democrats in 1986 and 2006, which effectively sapped the energy from the Reagan and George W. Bush presidencies.
The Corner on National Review online quotes Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’ approval rating from a Public Opinion Strategies poll.
A recent Public Opinion Strategies Poll conducted on behalf of Indiana Realtors puts Gov. Mitch Daniels’ (R) approval rating at 69 percent with 29 percent disapproving. The poll comes on Daniels’ 60th birthday today. The right/wrong track numbers for Indiana stood at 50-42%…Gov. Daniel’s image has improved a net-13 points since late September, 2008.
“Just as the Governor’s job approval has grown since election day, his image has continued to improve as well,” said pollster Gene Ulm. The poll was taken April 1-2 of 600 likely voters statewide. Sixty-eight percent of the voters have a favorable opinion of Daniels while 28% have an unfavorable opinion. (The POS Sept. 29/30, 2008 survey showed 58% favorable – 31% unfavorable.) “In short, Gov. Daniel’s image has improved a net-13 points since late September, 2008,” Ulm said. “In summary, Daniels’ strong image and job approval makes him one of the strongest Governor’s in the country – regardless of party. And, his support is bolstered by a wealth of voters who support the direction the state is headed despite their pre-occupation with the poor economic environment. This result shouldn’t be a shock – by a 42%-19% margin, our September survey’s respondents believed things in Indiana were going to get better rather than worse.”
The Colorado Independent lists Lori Weigel as a guest on a Rocky Mountain PBS talk show.
The StartUp blog at BusinessReport.com mentions a 2006 Public Opinion Strategies poll concerning the slaughter and sale of horsemeat for human consumption.
n 2006, it is estimated that more than 100,000 U.S. horses were inhumanely slaughtered for human consumption to supply European and Asian markets. Americans do not eat horsemeat, and a Public Opinion Strategies poll found that nearly 70% of Americans oppose the slaughter of horses for human consumption overseas.
Bruce Ritche from FloridaEnvironments.com includes the results of a poll measuring support of the Florida Forever land-buying program.
The poll of 600 registered voters found that 81 percent had a “positive impression” of the program and that 67 percent supported continued funding for the program. The funding support was the same for Democrats, Republicans and those with no party affiliations, according to The Nature Conservancy.
The Florida Forever Coalition commissioned the poll by Public Opinion Strategies on March 18 and 19. The error rate for the poll was 4 percent.
In it, they examined job ratings for Presidents early in their term, and looked at the gap between Republicans and Democrats on approval. For example, Obama has 59% approval overall, with 88% from Democrats and 27% from Republicans. That 61 point gap is the widest of any of the most recent seven Presidents to date.
The smallest gap early in his Presidency? Jimmy Carter – he had 56% from GOPers and 81% among Dems for a 25 point gap. The second smallest? Richard Nixon, who had 84% from GOPers and 55% from Dems – a 29 point gap.
It’s interesting to track the gap (see Pew chart) over time. For Nixon and Carter, the partisan polarization was below 30 points. For Reagan, Bush 41, and Clington, the partisan gap ranged from 38 to 46 points. For Bush 43, the gap was 51 points, while its now the aforementioned 61 point gap for Obama.
Also noteworthy is that Obama has the highest approval rating among his own partisans of any President – 88% of Dems approve. Right behind him was Bush 43 (87% of GOPers) and Reagan (87% of GOPers).
Here’s what we can say about President Obama’s approval ratings:
Despite the fawning press, he’s no better off than most recent Presidents at roughly the same point in time.
Obama’s amazing strength with his ownDems base is going to mean that his approval rating will stay relatively solid for a long time.
The President’s solid approval ratings look better in the context of coming off Bush 43’s record 44 months straight of sub-50% approval ratings.
Of course, this is all relatively unimportant. Jimmy Carter’s overall 72% approval rating in late March of 1977 did little to help him or his party in 1978 and 1980, while the President with the lowest rating early in his term (Bill Clinton’s 49%) had no problems winning re-election. Current standing is not a predictor of future outcomes.
