Josh Kraushaar discusses the idea of voters seeking checks and balances in the next election with Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse on Politico’s blog The Scorecard.
Our latest national survey provides strong evidence that voters are concerned that they have given too much power to one political party and that Republicans can provide a check and balance,” wrote POS pollster Glen Bolger.
“Checks and balances is no substitute for policy alternatives, but it does provide an opening for the GOP to be heard on the issues and to put a few speed bumps in the way of the liberal rush to spend as though there is no tomorrow – and no need to pay it back.”
Public Opinion Strategies pollster Neil Newhouse argued that while Obama continues to have a very high personal approval rating (79 percent), the number of voters supporting his policies is lower (55 percent). And that creates an opening for GOP candidates to run against a Democratic Congress, which 57 percent of respondents view unfavorably.
Pollster.com linked to the recent 100 days survey results on our blog.
The Yahoo! News blog discusses the results of the various 100 Days polls and how they reflect President Obama’s popularity and success thus far. While his numbers remain high, the bloggers point to a quote from Bill McInturff in the Wall Street Journal that says that Obama’s popularity is not necessarily due to Americans’ approval of his policies.
Though it may all sound good, The Wall Street Journal pointed out back in March that while Obama’s poll numbers are solid, the fact that people are bigger fans of the president himself than they are of his programs could be a big red flag:
William McInturff, a Republican pollster who is co-director of The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, notes that an approval rating in the 60% range is about where new presidents often find themselves about now. Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush were in the same range at this point. Jimmy Carter actually had a 75% approval rating in Roper Center polling in mid-March of his first year. That certainly didn’t last.
Last week brought us tax day, and for some that meant standing in long lines at the post office scrambling to submit returns on time, while for others it meant going out to tea. Yes, tens of thousands of protestors staged “tea parties” around the country last Wednesday to demonstrate their angst over taxes, government spending, and the bailouts. And, Public Opinion Strategies’ latest national survey of voters* shows that a solid majority (59{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) say they are sympathetic to the goals and objectives of these “tea party” protests.
Critics and non-believers decried the protests as trivial and wrote them off as a weak attempt by Republicans and conservatives to make some noise. But, not only do the numbers who turned out for tea last week belie that claim, so too does this recent data showing that more than two-thirds of the country has seen, read, or heard “a lot” (34{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) or “some” (34{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) about the “tea party” protests.
While Republicans are clearly the most sympathetic to the cause (80{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}), consider this – 56{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Independents say they are sympathetic, and Democrats are fairly evenly divided with 42{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying they are sympathetic and 48{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying they are not sympathetic. So it seems this cause has broader appeal than just the core GOP loyalists.
Interestingly, while younger voters tend to be the activists among us, the tea parties garner more sympathy from older voters. Sixty-five percent (65{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of voters age 45 or older say they are sympathetic compared to 52{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of voters age 18-44. Maybe older voters are just more fed up because they’ve paid more in taxes than their younger counterparts? What you may find less surprising is the gender gap – 64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of men compared to 55{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of women are sympathetic to the cause.
So what is it that these folks are most concerned about? Among the 59{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} who are sympathetic to the goals and objectives of the protests 31{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} say it’s the possibility their taxes could go up while six-in-ten (59{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) say it’s the increased government spending and the national debt. Republicans and Independents are more concerned about the spending (66{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} and 58{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} respectively), while Democrats are divided again – 42{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} say taxes, 47{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} say spending.
While the “tea parties” may have been mostly organized by Republican or conservative groups across the country, and the whistle of the kettle was like a songbird to hardcore fiscal conservatives, there’s no doubt the underlying cause and concerns have tapped into a type of mainstream “pitchfork populism” that the Republican Party would do well to talk about more.
*Data from a national survey of N=800 voters, conducted April 19-21, 2009. Margin of error +3.5{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}
This was the topic of discussion on a recent MPR (Minnesota Public Radio) show that I appeared on. As I commented on the show there are many different ways to look at this, but overall I think the answer is “no.”
Consider some of the social attitudes that Public Opinion Strategies has been tracking for years across the country. By a margin of two-to-one voters still describe themselves as conservative (39{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) versus liberal (20{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}). Almost two-thirds of voters say they attend religious services frequently (40{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) or occasionally (22{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}), and just 10{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of the nation describes themselves as agnostic/atheist. On the issue of abortion, we’re more or less split down the middle (43{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} pro-life/51{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} pro-choice), and gay marriage is still an issue that brings out passionate and diverse feelings. These trends have been stable for several years and show little sign of shifting any time soon.
So, why then are we asking whether America has become a center-left nation now? I think the reason we’re having this conversation is because of the current economic conditions and some shifting perceptions among the public over the role of government.
It’s true in the last couple of years on our NBC/WSJ poll we’ve watched the public move to favor the idea that “government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people” (51{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) over the notion that the “government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals” (40{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}).
But, while some recent Gallup data shows a majority (53{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) approves of the government’s expanded role in the economy, just 13{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} want to see that expanded role made permanent, while the rest want it to be reduced once the crisis is over. Another, 44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} simply disapprove of the government’s expanded role. And, more than half the nation (55{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) says President Obama’s proposals to address the economic problems in the country call for too much spending.
In fact, when asked more directly about government involvement in a recent Rasmussen Reports survey, 72{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} say a free market economy is better than an economy managed by the government (14{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}); 60{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Americans say the federal government has too much money and power,; and 59{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} agree with President Reagan’s adage that “government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem.”
So, while Americans may appear to be shifting towards a center-left preference for more government control and involvement, it seems to be driven by the short-term desire to address our economic problems, and not because there has been a permanent shift in ideological attitudes.
Remember “I want my MTV!”? Well, that’s done with and over. It’s a new generation.
First fact: Fully 85% of voters say they have home computers. That includes 67% of seniors, 76% of rural voters and 40% of households with incomes under $20K.
When asked which they would give up if forced to make a choice – their TV or their home computer, fully 55% said they would give up their TVs and just 43% offered up their computers (of course, two percent refused to even entertain the choice between the two).
Not surprisingly, there’s a generation divide on the question, with younger Americans (that is, under the age of 55, by my definition of “younger”) choosing to trash their TVs rather than their computers by a 60%-38% margin, and those over 55 choosing to give up their home computers by a 54%-44% margin.
Interestingly, voters in the West are once again the trend-leaders, as fully 63% say they would give up their TVs, while voters in the Northeast were least likely to want to part with their TVs.
Finally, it’s the education level of the respondent, rather than the income level that provides the better “cut” of the data. There’s a 42-point net difference in attitudes on this question by higher and lower education level (with higher educated voters opting to give up their TVs), compared to a 26-point net difference by higher and lower income levels.
The LA Times Top of the Ticket blog mentions Gene Ulm’s post on about the misery index.
Gene Ulm has an interesting examination of the Misery Index, the combination of the unemployment and inflation rates.
Of the 15 midterm elections in the last 60 years, Ulm notes fully 13 have been “change” elections, meaning the party controlling the White House loses seats in both the Senate and House as a kind of halftime verdict on the sitting president as American voters rebalance the political teetertotter. Only two midterms have seen the White House party gain seats.
According to Ulm’s research, the average Misery Index in “change” elections was 10.1; the average in status quo was 6.86. The president’s party lost an average of 26 seats in change elections, with Bill Clinton’sfirst midterm the worst, a loss of 52 Democratic seats in the so-called Republican Revolution of 1994 after the failure of health-care reform.
The Misery Index has now passed 8, with many experts expecting unemployment to rise throughout this year. Double-digit misery seems to spell congressional misery for White House incumbents.
In Politico, Carrie Budoff Brown discusses the Republicans’ place in health care reform and lists Bill McInturff as part of a “familiar lineup” of policy analysts known for their health care expertise.
Republicans are fielding strategic and policy advice from a familiar lineup, including Gingrich, Scott, pollster Bill McInturff, Galen Institute president Grace-Marie Turner, and Heritage Foundation health policy expert Robert Moffitt. All were involved in the health care debate in the early 1990s.