Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com answers the question of what pollsters are doing at this point in the election cycle, which includes watching the generic ballot trend. He includes a quote from Glen Bolger’s blog post explaining the significance of the recent NPR poll results.
Over at the Public Opinion Strategies blog TQIA, Glen Bolger explains the significance of the result from the Republican perspective:
After four years of horrendous generic ballot numbers, the data is consistently showing improvement. The latest Public Opinion Strategies national survey, taken April 7-9, 2009 among 800 likely voters, has the generic ballot deficit at 39% Republican/42% Democratic. These data are pretty consistent with what most public polls have been showing in March and now April — the generic ballot ranges anywhere from tied to a five point Democratic advantage.
What’s remarkable about these results (other, of course, than the fact that Republicans are back to being competitive for the first time since 2004) is that the GOPer is close on the generic ballot DESPITE the Dems still significant advantage on party ID. This survey found an eight point party ID deficit — 33% say they are GOPers, while 41% are Dems, and 24% are Independents (2% refused/don’t know combined).
The Republican State Leadership Committee’s State News Shot includes an excerpt of another one of Glen’s posts on the generic ballot trend here.
Phillip Brasher of the Des Moines Register quotes Bill McInturff in an article about soft drink makers’ advocate and American Beverage Association President Susan Neely working to improve the availability of healthy beverage choices in schools.
But Bill McInturff, a pollster who has worked with Neely since the Harry and Louise campaign, said she’s an effective leader for the soft-drink business because she understands a key audience: “moderation moms,” relatively affluent women who want to protect their kids’ health while still letting them have some drinks and sweets. She also has an unusual combination of personal charm, listening skills, patience, drive and acumen at public communication, he says.
She’s needed those attributes not only to work with critics in Congress but also to get her association’s member companies, including Coca-Cola and Pepsi, to agree to limit the sales of their iconic products. That required “a massive culture change” for the industry, McInturff said.
The guidelines, which are removing the companies’ flagship brands from schools, grew out of polling that McInturff did for the association shortly after Neely took the helm in 2005. When the results showed that mothers overwhelmingly didn’t want soft drinks sold at school to children younger than age 15, that restriction had to be part of the guidelines, Neely said.
Howey Politics Indiana discusses the Public Opinion Strategies poll about tax caps in Indiana here.
“Thanks for the smart post Glen. It’s also interesting to note the tightening of the generic even as Congressional Dems have much higher fav ratings (and lower unfavs) than GOPers”
Amy made a good point (and a problematic for us Republicans). In two late March surveys, two different polling firms came up with very different approval ratings for Democrats in Congress, but very similar — and troubling — ratings for Republicans in Congress.
The national Quinnipiac Survey conducted March 24-30, 2009 found that 40% approve and 49% disapprove of Democrats in Congress. Meanwhile, the Financial Dynamics national survey for Hotline, conducted March 26-29, found a mirror opposite — 48% approve/43% disapprove of Democrats in Congress.
However, the two national surveys were consistent on the job rating for Republicans in Congress — The Q Poll found Americans rating GOPers in Congress at 30% approve/59% disapprove, while the FD Survey for Hotline found 30% approve/57% disapprove for the same group.
Don’t focus on the wrong part of this contradiction. It’s not about which rating of congressional Dems is right — I can’t explain the difference, and as Republicans, that’s less important than the two-to-one negative rating we clearly have in Congress. The contradiction, as Amy pointed out succinctly above, is that the generic ballot FOR CONGRESS has tightened despite low opinions of GOPers IN CONGRESS.
First of all, it is important to remember that the public, and therefore public opinion, is not required to be consistent. We see this in data all the time. It also helps explain why politicians aren’t always consistent either.
My theory in explaining this contradiction is a several step process. First, voters haven’t forgiven Republicans for the 2005-2008 years of Iraq, Katrina, the economic crash, political scandals, and more. Therefore, it’s going to take time before they trust Republican incumbent politicians as a group (even if they like their individual incumbents). Secondly, voters are beginning to show signs that they worry they may have over-corrected and gave the Democrats too much unchecked power.
I remember back in the late 1980s doing focus groups with voters in swing districts that were voting Republican at the Presidential level, but Democratic at the Congressional level. Those voters explained their behavior as ensuring “checks and balances.” They didn’t trust either political party, so they wanted to make sure neither party could do too much — because that’s usually when things went too far. Thus, these swing voters didn’t define “checks and balances” as judicial/legislative/executive, but as making sure there is enough of one party to keep an eye on the ones from the other party who are running the show.
Right now, the contradiction of the tighter generic ballot and the still weak rating of GOPers in Congress underscores that Republican candidates should focus on themselves and their opponent rather than nationalizing their campaign. This can change, but it probably won’t shift enough to change that strategy heading into 2010.
In The Bellingham Herald, Neil Newhouse was interviewed about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s possible reasons for attending an anti-abortion banquet in Indiana.
Palin is playing it safe by attending an event where “dissenting voices are likely to be far and few between,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican strategist and pollster for Public Opinion Strategies in Alexandria, Va.
“But Palin’s foray into the Midwest also sends a pretty clear signal to the GOP faithful that she intends to build on her conservative credentials rather than ‘move to the middle,”‘ Newhouse said. “While we shouldn’t read too much into a single event, it sure looks like she has her eyes set on GOP primary voters.”
The Pensacola News-Journal reports that Florida Governor Charlie Crist is enjoying a very high approval rating according to a recent POS poll.
Greer also disclosed results of a poll conducted last week by Public Opinion Strategies. He said it showed 74 percent approval for Crist, with 23 percent of voters disapproving of his job performance. By comparison, Obama’s approval was 60 percent statewide.
According to TampaBay.com, despite Crist’s high approval ratings in the polls, House Speaker Marc Rubio is considering running against him.
Reid Wilson of The Hill discusses the implications of the Florida GOP’s decision to poll for the governor’s race without including Crist, implying that he is seriously considering a Senate bid.
“About 10 days ago, I wanted to take a pulse and see where we really were in Florida based on what we’re hearing,” Greer said Tuesday. “I just wanted to take a look at everything, top to bottom.”
The poll, Greer told The Hill, showed Crist with a 74 percent approval rating, higher than the 60 percent rating President Obama enjoys in the state. Though Crist voiced support for the economic stimulus package, an unpopular stance among some Washington Republicans, Greer said the governor still has a healthy 70 percent approval rating among likely Republican primary voters.
In the last off-year elections, Republicans trailed by eight to 15 points on the generic ballot from the summer of 2005 throughout 2006. The challenge wasn’t simply Katrina — the slippage came prior to then, as pre-surge Iraq proved to be a mess. The deficit on the generic ballot remained in double digit range throughout 2008.
In case you are skeptical that the generic ballot matters, it does. In2006, Dems won 54.3% of the major party vote, while GOPers won 45.7% (an 8.6% deficit). In 2008, the Dems won 55.7% of the major party vote, compared to 44.3% for the GOP candidates nationwide (an 11.4% deficit). A quick thanks to Clark Bensen at Polidata for digging up that data quickly.
After four years of horrendous generic ballot numbers, the data is consistently showing improvement. The latest Public Opinion Strategies national survey, taken April 7-9, 2009 among 800 likely voters, has the generic ballot deficit at 39% Republican/42% Democratic. These data are pretty consistent with what most public polls have been showing in March and now April — the generic ballot ranges anywhere from tied to a five point Democratic advantage.
What’s remarkable about these results (other, of course, than the fact that Republicans are back to being competitive for the first time since 2004) is that the GOPer is close on the generic ballot DESPITE the Dems still significant advantage on party ID. This survey found an eight point party ID deficit — 33% say they are GOPers, while 41% are Dems, and 24% are Independents (2% refused/don’t know combined).
This means that GOPers are winning the generic ballot among Independents (33% GOP/23% Dem). Both parties are doing well with their respective bases — the GOP candidate is winning 89%-2% among their base, while the Dem candidate is winning 86%-3% among their base.
As I have made the case ad naseum, it is important to remember several points:
Because there are more self-identified Dems than GOPers now, we have to win Independents big.
The GOP challenge is NOT a base problem. It has NEVER been a base problem in the last two elections.
The challenge in 2006 is that Independents were angry with us.
In 2008, the challenge was that there are a lot more Dems than GOPers (and Independents hadn’t completely vented in 2006).
There is still a lot of work to be done. . .but at least Republicans are back in the game. Later this week I will post more subgroup findings from the generic ballot, but further evidence of the closing of the generic ballot gap is certainly blog-worthy.
Lori Weigel will be on KBDI (Channel 12 – PBS) in Denver tonight (Tuesday April 14) to discuss the future of the Colorado Republican Party on the Aaron Harber Show. The show airs tonight at 8 p.m. MDT (10 p.m. EDT) and will also re-air Wednesday (April 15) at 5 p.m. MDT (7 p.m. EDT.)
