Hillary Clinton’s Biggest Obstacle

Despite attempts by Democratic Senate strategists to make “the map is the map” the new “it is what it is,” the Senate map was not the biggest problem facing Democrats this year. A bad Senate map does not account for Republican governors in the Democratic strongholds of Illinois Maryland and Massachusetts or a seven point […]

DON’T SAY WE DIDN’T WARN YOU, MARY LANDRIEU!

My partner, Patrick Lanne wrote in October (https://pos.org/2014/10/echoes-of-2006-battleground-favoring-a-gop-senate-takeover/) that Republican Senate candidates in 2006 failed to separate from President Bush’s standing in their home states. And, as I wrote a few weeks ago (https://pos.org/2014/10/senate-democratic-incumbents-may-have-already-hit-the-obama-ceiling/), President Obama’s approval ratings in competitive U.S. Senate races were acting as an anchor on Democratic support, making it very difficult […]

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES POLLS FOR THREE NEW SENATORS AND NINE NEW MEMBERS OF CONGRESS

The survey research firm of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) polled for three of the eight candidates who took away Democratic Senate seats (so far), four Governors, and nine new Members of Congress.  Including independent expenditure efforts, Public Opinion Strategies polled in 16 Senate and Gubernatorial statewide victories and 53 Congressional victories, including 19 seats wrestled […]

Why The Elephants Are Dancing: Understanding the November 2014 Election

Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows the 2014 election was defined by major dissatisfaction about the direction of the country, the economy, and President Obama: On Election Day, roughly two-thirds (65{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of voters said the country is headed off on the wrong track. The weekend before the election 64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of voters said they were […]

Five Key Takeaways about Campaign Contact from the Pre-election NBC/WSJ Poll

2014 will be the most expensive and competitive midterm election in our country’s history. Yet, national polling predicts historically low voter turnout. But, the latest data from NBC/WSJ suggests that will not be due to a lack of effort by either party or their candidates. The poll, conducted October 30 through November 1, asked 1,200 […]

New National Pre-Election Survey

Public Opinion Strategies conducted a national telephone survey among 800 likely voters October 30-November 2, 2014. The survey has a margin of error of +3.46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}.  Please see our key findings memo and interview schedule for this survey.

Barack Obama and the Curse of the Mid-term Elections

Barack Obama must not like his fellow Democrats.  How else can we explain that the man with the golden political touch when he is on the ballot is political absinthe in the midterms. In our latest national survey, our pre-election poll done October 30-November 2, Obama’s approval rating of 41{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve/56{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove is lower than […]

SENATE DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENTS MAY HAVE ALREADY HIT THE OBAMA CEILING

Recent national polling shows President Obama in nearly an identical place where President Bush was at this point in his second term, just a couple weeks before the midterm election: The connection between a President’s approval ratings nationally and the historic outcome of midterm elections is already well-documented. And, it’s not really breaking any news […]

Public Opinion Strategies