Despite attempts by Democratic Senate strategists to make “the map is the map” the new “it is what it is,” the Senate map was not the biggest problem facing Democrats this year. A bad Senate map does not account for Republican governors in the Democratic strongholds of Illinois Maryland and Massachusetts or a seven point […]
My partner, Patrick Lanne wrote in October (https://pos.org/2014/10/echoes-of-2006-battleground-favoring-a-gop-senate-takeover/) that Republican Senate candidates in 2006 failed to separate from President Bush’s standing in their home states. And, as I wrote a few weeks ago (https://pos.org/2014/10/senate-democratic-incumbents-may-have-already-hit-the-obama-ceiling/), President Obama’s approval ratings in competitive U.S. Senate races were acting as an anchor on Democratic support, making it very difficult […]
Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows that the ACA was not as much of a vote factor in 2014 as it was in 2010. Here is what we knew going into Election Day 2014: This was one of the top issues Congressional candidates were focusing on this cycle with one out of ten campaign […]
The survey research firm of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) polled for three of the eight candidates who took away Democratic Senate seats (so far), four Governors, and nine new Members of Congress. Including independent expenditure efforts, Public Opinion Strategies polled in 16 Senate and Gubernatorial statewide victories and 53 Congressional victories, including 19 seats wrestled […]
Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows the 2014 election was defined by major dissatisfaction about the direction of the country, the economy, and President Obama: On Election Day, roughly two-thirds (65{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of voters said the country is headed off on the wrong track. The weekend before the election 64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of voters said they were […]
2014 will be the most expensive and competitive midterm election in our country’s history. Yet, national polling predicts historically low voter turnout. But, the latest data from NBC/WSJ suggests that will not be due to a lack of effort by either party or their candidates. The poll, conducted October 30 through November 1, asked 1,200 […]
In the House, Richard Nixon’s the one. In the Senate, Bill Clinton has not stopped thinking about tomorrow. But both of them are about to be replaced in modern political history* by Barack Obama unless Election Day turns out far differently than projected. The category, Alex? Recent two-term Presidents who have done the most political […]
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a national telephone survey among 800 likely voters October 30-November 2, 2014. The survey has a margin of error of +3.46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}. Please see our key findings memo and interview schedule for this survey.
Barack Obama must not like his fellow Democrats. How else can we explain that the man with the golden political touch when he is on the ballot is political absinthe in the midterms. In our latest national survey, our pre-election poll done October 30-November 2, Obama’s approval rating of 41{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve/56{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove is lower than […]
Recent national polling shows President Obama in nearly an identical place where President Bush was at this point in his second term, just a couple weeks before the midterm election: The connection between a President’s approval ratings nationally and the historic outcome of midterm elections is already well-documented. And, it’s not really breaking any news […]
