Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows the 2014 election was defined by major dissatisfaction about the direction of the country, the economy, and President Obama:
- On Election Day, roughly two-thirds (65{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of voters said the country is headed off on the wrong track.
- The weekend before the election 64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of voters said they were dissatisfied with the state of the U.S. economy.
- In the national exit polls, President Obama’s job approval was 44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} on Election Day, exactly matching his job approval on Election Day in 2010.
- By a roughly two-to-one margin, people say they voted as a signal to oppose rather than to support President Obama (17{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} support/32{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} oppose).
- Republicans enjoyed a six point edge on the generic vote for Congress (52{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying they voted for the Republican candidate for Congress compared to 46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying they voted for the Democratic candidate for Congress).
- In the national exit polls, Republicans carried White men by an even wider margin in 2014 than in 2010 (64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying they voted for the Republican candidate/33{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying they voted for the Democratic candidate this cycle compared to 62{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}/34{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in 2010).
- While not quite as high as in 2010, Republicans captured White women by a comfortable double-digit margin this cycle (56{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying they voted for the Republican candidate/43{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying they voted for the Democratic candidate in 2014 compared to 58{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}/39{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in 2010 according to national exit polls).
- Republican positive fortunes were spurred as well by high dissatisfaction among Independents and double-digit support on the generic Congressional vote. Among Independents on our Election Day survey:
- 65{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} say the country is headed off on the wrong track.
- A majority disapprove of the president’s job (37{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve/59{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove).
- A double-digit majority voted Republican for Congress (53{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Republican candidate/37{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democratic candidate).
- Confirming recent off-year trends, the majority of voters (60{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) say they made up their mind on which Congressional candidate to vote for in September or earlier. Republicans carried these early deciders by a wide margin (57{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Republican candidate/41{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democratic candidate) , while losing the 24{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of voters who made up their mind in October (44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Republican candidate/53{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democratic candidate) and the 15{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} who made up their mind on the few days before the election or Election Day (42{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Republican candidate/51{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democratic candidate).
- Early voting continues to increase with the highest number of people in a mid-term (34{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) saying they voted before the election. Republicans broke even with early voters (50{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Republican candidate/50{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democratic candidate) and carried Election Day voters by eight points (52{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Republican candidate/44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democratic candidate).
Please click here to see a slide deck of key Election Night findings.
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a national telephone survey on November 4, 2014 among N=800 actual voters, including 240 cell phone interviews. The survey has a margin of error of +3.46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in 95 out of 100 cases.
