An Unexpected Shift in a Typically Stable Measure
Posts by Bill McInturff
An Unexpected Shift in a Typically Stable Measure

For years, ideology has been a fairly stable measure of public opinion.  Here are the trend lines on ideology from the NBC–Wall Street Journal polling merge data among registered voters that typically contain 8,000–12,000 interviews per year: However, in the three NBC–Wall Street Journal surveys conducted so far this year (N=2,400 registered voters), we have […]

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A Recession We Can’t Refuse

Last year ended with lower energy prices and higher economic growth, and consumer confidence was on the rise.  The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit 98.1 this January, its highest mark since January 2004. But the Obama economy is the Michael Corleone Godfather: Part III recession:  Just when you thought you were out, it pulls you […]

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The Growth in Independents…Is Not

As our previous research has indicated, Independents, with leaners included, constitute a growing portion of the electorate.  The real story about the growth of Independents, though, is more nuanced and complex. First, in our recent look at party identification over time, we made a chart showing the drop in party identification (excluding leaners) over the […]

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A Long Horizon: Some Observations About Party Identification Over the Past 25 Years

Pollsters famously maintain their findings represent attitudes as “a snapshot in time.” But, examining data points over a long period provides a great deal of insight into trends in public opinion. One of the most significant measures of public opinion is voters’ partisanship, and trends here can portend a lot, so we looked at party […]

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Remember: A Majority of Registered Voters Did Vote on Election Day

The day after Democrats got crushed in their second mid-term election in a row, President Obama said in a press conference he got the message. “To everyone who voted, I want you to know that I hear you. To the two-thirds of voters who chose not to participate in the process yesterday, I hear you, […]

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