National Journal Online quotes Bill McInturff about polling for primary elections in an article about the Republican primary for the Virginia Governor’s race.
Polling in primary elections may be perilous, but it doesn’t have to be impossible. The campaign pollsters who conduct these surveys and live to tell about it constantly remind their clients of their limitations. “In primary elections,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff wrote in an e-mail, “I tell my clients (repeatedly) how difficult it is to know if you have captured all the moving pieces that can impact the result.” He puts greatest emphasis on watching trends in surveys that have been conducted “in a rigorous and consistent way…. The most important thing to look at is whether the lines are going up (good) or down (bad).”
PRNewswire released an article about the recent POS survey for Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids in Maine.
The Biloxi-Gulfport Sun Herald released a similar article from PRNewswire about a Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids poll in Mississippi.
(The article was co-authored by Matthew Jason.)
This is the second in a series of blog entries regarding specific voter demographics in California based on a merge of all the statewide interviews conducted by the California Office of Public Opinion Strategies going back to the beginning on 2004. This merge includes a total of over 31,000 statewide interviews.
You may have seen the numerous media reports this year about how Republican Registration is plummeting in California and how the Grand Old Party will soon no longer be a viable alternative in the state. If you read it in the paper or see it on the internet, it must be true, right? Wrong. There was a slight decrease in Republican Registration in California between the 2006 general election and the 2008 general election. According to the official Secretary of State reports of registration, there were 8,292 less Republican Voters at election time in 2008.
While it is always troubling to see a decline in Republican Registration, let’s look at some other numbers to put this loss in perspective. During the same two year period, Democratic Registration increased by over 955,000 and Decline to State Registration increased by more than 476,000. No, there were not any extra zeros included by accident. Even if every one of the Republican defections went to the Democrats or became a Decline to State Voter, this would represent only the tiniest fraction of their gains.
What California experienced during this last campaign cycle was not a Republican collapse. The Republican Party in California was simply stagnant during a campaign season which saw the very modest effort from the McCain Campaign. Meanwhile, the voter registration efforts undertaken by the Democratic Party and the Clinton and Obama Campaigns specifically were extremely impressive. When these two circumstances converged, we saw some unique outcomes like President Obama outpolling McCain in eight Republican-held Congressional Districts in the state, but this odd occurrence hardly signals the collapse of the Republican Party.
We use the California Voter File for almost all of our research in California, and it tells us what party voters are registered with, but we traditionally ask an additional question about how the respondents usually vote on election day. Our recent data merge includes more than 27,000 voters who have been asked this question on a statewide survey over the last five years. Twenty-nine percent (29{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of them said they always vote Republican and thirty-five percent (35{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of them said they always vote Democratic. The more interesting number is the thirty-three percent (33{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) who were not loyal to either major party in their response to this question. We call this group the “swing” voters, and they are the ones who decide who wins in California.
Looking at the trend among these “swing” voters, it is clear that is has become more popular over the last few years to express your loyalty to the Democrats. We would expect nothing less, especially as President Bush became less popular and it became more and more clear that the Democrats would be the party in power when election day arrived. The percentage of California Voters expressing their loyalty to the Democratic Party increased from thirty-four percent (34{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) back in 1994 to thirty-eight percent (38{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) in 2008.
Republicans must have decreased by at least this much, right? Wrong again. The percentage of California Voters expressing their loyalty to the Republican Party has remained virtually unchanged during the same period. In 2004, twenty-nine percent (29{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) expressed their loyalty to Republicans, and that number was still twenty-eight percent (28{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) in 2008. Again, this hardly signifies a Republican collapse.
What we are seeing is simply a temporary perception change among the soft middle, the “swing voters” of California. They want to be part of the movement for real change that President Obama is so fond of talking about. They want to disassociate themselves from President Bush and the economic downturn that the media has told them he is responsible for. They want to identify themselves with the party in power and be optimistic about the future. How long will this perception change last? It depends on how bad economic conditions become, and it depends even more on what kind of fresh new ideas the Republican Party and its individual candidates come up with. As we have said over and over again, how quickly the Republican Party comes up with a message other than, “we oppose Obama and his policies” will determine how long it takes for them to once again regain the trust of California’s swing voters.
On National Journal Online, Charlie Cook referenced Glen Bolger’s recent post about how Democrats are drawing attention to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trouble with the interrogation issue.
Republicans seem to be delighted with how much Democrats, and Pelosi, are keeping the issue in the headlines. Glen Bolger and Jim Hobart from the Republican polling firm of Public Opinion Strategies have made hay of it, posting a piece on their firm’s Web site that link it to the speaker’s public image, which they obviously have an interest in poking holes in.
On NBC’s First Read, Mike Murray quotes an email from Glen about releasing the prisoners at Gitmo.
Well, we’ve received some answers from Republicans. GOP pollster Glen Bolger emails us, “It’s a lot more likely scenario that fellow terrorists would attack a prison to free terrorists than it is for fellow murderers or rapists to do the same.”
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: NEIL NEWHOUSE
Neil@POS.org / 703-836-7655
POLL SHOWS STRONG NATIONAL SUPPORT FOR “RED-LIGHT CAMERAS”
May 19, 2009, Alexandria, VA – In a recent national survey of voters, Public Opinion Strategies found that fully 69% of Americans support the use of “red-light cameras” at the most dangerous intersections in their states, while just 29% oppose them.
Those voters “strongly” supporting red-light cameras outnumber those who strongly oppose them by a wide 45%-18% margin.
Neil Newhouse, one of the founding partners of Public Opinion Strategies, noted that “support for these red-light cameras is not only very strong nationally, but cuts across all demographic and attitudinal groups, including men and women, young and old, Republicans and Democrats, and conservatives and liberals.”
The survey also showed that while support for red-light cameras is very high, voters believe that their support is not shared by others. By a 47%-41% margin, voters believe that most residents in their state oppose red-light cameras, providing evidence of a “disconnect” between voters’ actual attitudes on the issue and their perception of how other voters feel.
“This is a stunning result. Rarely in public opinion research do you find voter attitudes so at odds with what they believe others think. These red-light camera supporters are truly the ‘silent majority,’ while opponents might be described as a vocal minority.”
The national survey was based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters, conducted April 19-22, 2009. The results are subject to a margin of sampling error of approximately plus or minus 3.46 percent.
Public Opinion Strategies (POS) is a national political and public affairs research firm. Headquartered in Alexandria, Virginia, POS is the Republican partner for the NBC/WSJ Poll and was named “Pollster of the Year” by the trade publication “Campaigns and Elections.”
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N1. Do you support or oppose the use of red-light cameras to detect red-light runners and enforce traffic laws in your state’s most dangerous intersections?
45% STRONGLY SUPPORT
24% SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
11% SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
18% STRONGLY OPPOSE
2% DON’T KNOW
* REFUSED
69% TOTAL SUPPORT
29% TOTAL OPPOSE
______________________________________________________________________________
N2. And, setting aside your personal opinion of red-light cameras, do you think that most residents in your state support or oppose the use of red-light cameras to ensure traffic safety?
This article was co-authored by Bill McInturff and Alex Bratty
Is the looming threat to our economy rising inflation, or falling prices, known as deflation? That’s the current debate raging among economists as this month brought some more staggering statistics.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.1% in March and was flat in April. However, the annual inflation rate has now declined two months in a row. This is not to be taken lightly – in March the 0.4% drop was the first time the annual inflation rate had dipped since 1955. The April numbers — out a few days ago — show the annual inflation rate now at -0.7%, and posting the sharpest decline on record since 1954.
As pollsters, it’s our job to think ahead and wonder what might be coming…what might we want to ask consumers about now, so we have a measure on it later? We asked ourselves that question in December 2008, and came up with the answer that deflation could be on the horizon. So, we asked Americans in our end-of-year NBC/WSJ poll* about it. One half of respondents were asked about inflation, the other half about deflation. Since this stuff can get a little technical we provided some information and context for folks taking the survey:
Inflation: As you may know, inflation refers to when prices for goods and services increase. Inflation can be a problem because it means that goods that people buy regularly – such as groceries, clothing, or gasoline – cost more.
Deflation: As you may know, deflation is the opposite of inflation – it means prices continuously go down. Deflation can be a problem because companies find it hard to make money on the goods they sell, leading them to lay off workers and reduce wages.
Almost all Americans (82%) said they were concerned our economy might experience inflation in the coming year, with a majority (56%) saying they were “very concerned.” But, perhaps surprisingly, respondents were almost as concerned about the prospect of deflation as well — 76% said they were concerned, and almost half (47%) said they were “very concerned.”
December was a rocky ride on the stock market, and consumers may simply have been jittery about the prospect of any new problem with the economy. Nonetheless, these were pretty compelling numbers at a time when there was little discussion about the possibility of deflation, not to mention the fact that most Americans have never experienced this economic concept.
A few more months of the economic data we’ve just witnessed and there could be a whole new focus on deflation with younger generations being educated on what it means for them and the economy overall. As your faithful pollsters, we’ll be measuring their opinions on it…
*National survey of 1,009 adults conducted December 5-8, 2008.
(Public Opinion Strategies partners with Peter D. Hart Research Associates to conduct the NBC/WSJ polls. Neither Peter D. Hart Research Associates nor NBC/WSJ are responsible for these conclusions.)
