The American Association for Public Opinion Research held its annual conference a few weeks ago in Hollywood, FL. Unfortunately, I could not attend, but several of the presentations from the conference and interviews are posted on the web.
1. Cell-phone-only (CPO) incidence and rate of growth
2. How do CPO voters differ from landline-reachable?
3.Bias implications for future surveys that don’t attempt to cover the wireless-only population
The NEP question in the 2004 and 2008 exit polls was:
What type of telephone service is there in your home that you could use or be reached on?
Both regular land-line and cell phone service
Only regular land-line phone service
Only cell phone service
No telephone service at home
In 2004, just 385 of the exit poll interviews out of 5,619 were with CPO-voters, or around 7%. But in 2008, 20% of voters in the exit poll were CPO-voters (1,496 out of 7,341). Note: these interviews are based only on election day voters.
Cell-phone-only voters backed Obama by large margins (38% McCain/61% Obama). The Presidential ballot among CPO-voters in 2004 was 44% Bush/54% Kerry. CPO-voters in 2008 were twice as likely as landline voters to be voting in their first election. This is largely due to the fact that CPO-voters are younger than landline voters and younger voters are more likely to be first time voters.
Much has been written about the 2008 voter contact programs of the Presidential campaigns, but was there any difference in their reach by phone status? The results from the exit poll data show cell-only-voters were much less likely to have been contacted by either campaign. 74% of CPO said they were NOT contacted by either campaign, versus 56% of land-line voters.
The report noted, “Even Obama’s campaign – renowned for its technological innovation – was more likely to contact landline reachable than CPO-voters – 34% of landline-reachable reported contact from Obama campaign, versus 23% of CPO.”
Reaching cell-phone-only voters is not only an issue for pollsters, but also an issue for campaigns when they are deciding ways to communicate their messages.
Deseret News discussed the results of a poll for Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and Trust for America’s Health, which most notably found that Americans are looking to focus on preventative healthcare rather than just “sick care.”
“We gave Americans a list of proposals being considered to reform health care, and investing in prevention trumped them all,” said pollster Bill McInturff. “It’s clear that Americans see the value of prevention for reducing disease, improving quality of life and lowering health-care costs.”
PRNewswire released a similar article from the Trust for America’s Health.
The Wall Street Journal cited a POS poll in Arizona from earlier this year measuring public opinion of tax rebates and subsidies given to private developments.
Government-sponsored development isn’t popular. Public Opinion Strategies polling found earlier this year that 80% of Phoenix taxpayers oppose their city’s subsidies for CityNorth and agree that the developer and the retailers who move into the new mall “should pay their own way.” The subsidy is also attracting opposition outside of Phoenix. Last week, Mayor W.J. Lane of neighboring Scottsdale won support from his city council to file a friend-of-the-court brief in support of our lawsuit.
NBC affiliate WBIR.com in Tennessee includes a question from an earlier POS poll that shows Tim Burchett leading the Knox County Mayor race.
My partner Glen’s OCD is well-placed when it comes to Independent voters; where they end up will decide the 2010 elections. But, their swollen ranks have not just come by way of GOP defections. Thanks to the total, complete, consolidated, and dominating power of President Obama and Congressional allies in Congress, they are now coming from Democrats as well.
The same mid-April Pew survey that measured a low ebb for Republicans (22% of the nation’s party identification, yikes!) also showed only 33% identifying themselves as Democrats – or the lowest number since January of ‘08 and down from the 39% measured in October just prior to election day. While Republicans have yet to directly benefit from complete Democratic control, neither have the Democrats.
Our most recent national survey showed a majority of Americans willing to vote for a Republican as a hedge against complete Democratic control (A Compelling GOP Message). Independent-minded Americans get that. And so far, Republicans aren’t making conservatives but the Democrats are.
Need proof of America’s tack back from the Left? Despite a low-water mark of 22% GOP party ID, the same Mid-April Pew survey shows a plurality (44%) of Americans now believe free trade agreements like NAFTA have been a good thing. Only 35% say they’ve been a bad thing. This is a net 22 point shift since April 2008 according to the Pew researchers.
Need more? Americans are now much more split when it comes to gun control: 45% are against it and 49% are for it for a net 17 point shift in favor of protecting the rights of gun owners when compared to Pew’s April ‘08 survey. Attitudes on abortion have taken a net eleven point shift toward the pro-life position since October ‘08. American attitudes toward gay marriage have taken a similar rightward shift, albeit by a smaller single-digit margin over the past year.
Repeat: If issues matter, America has been growing more arguably more conservative but undeniably less liberal since election day. A result that has also been replicated by Gallup.
But none of this blanching at the unchecked power of those in charge matters unless Independents place the blame for their economic woes firmly on the Democrat’s doorstep. Fully half of the Pew respondents ranked the economy as their most important concern. Please excuse me for quoting myself to add spice to my conversation, if there are doubts about economic impact on midterm elections, please see my previous post, More Misery Index.
While President Obama remains very well liked (Pew measured a 73%-24% fav-unfav), this is a net 15 point slide since January. But, by a 70%-23% margin, Pew says Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country today, unemployment is at 8.9% and gaining at a little less than half a point a month over the last four months.
Obamalove and American’s economic woes can’t coexist forever. And, Republicans won’t resonate on their own with Independents until they make the case that Obama and Congressional Democrats are making matters worse.
First Republic posted a Roll Call article about Rep. John Murtha’s chances of being relected , mentioning that POS will be polling for his probable challenger, Tim Burns.
WOAI News Radio in San Antonio, TX reported the results of a recent survey about how Texans feel about the state of the economy.
Texans remain optimistic about the economy and the future, despite the current economic downturn, according to a new survey released by the Texas Credit Union League, 1200 WOAI news reports.
53% of Texans say the state’s economy is either good or excellent, according to the survey, which was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Hamilton Campaigns, Republican and Democratic polling firms.
Faithful readers know that I am obsessed with Independents and swing voters. I have been ever since I worked at the NRCC and we lost an “unloseable” (is that a word?) special election in Indiana’s old 4th CD — a seat that had been held by Dan Coats and Dan Quayle.
Evidence that history repeats itself is that the conventional wisdom is that we lost because the base wasn’t with us. However, the post-election survey found base GOPers voted overwhelmingly for the GOP candidate, but Independents went big for Jill Long and we suffered too many defections among soft GOPers.
Last week, the Pew Research Center released an interesting survey of 3,013 voters done in early/mid April. The headline is that “Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era.” A couple of highlights from the overview memo underscore the GOP’s opportunity — and challenge — with Independents:
The proportion of independents now equals its highest level in 70 years. Owing to defections from the Republican Party, independents are more conservative on several key issues than in the past.
(T)he percentage of self-described political independents has steadily climbed, on a monthly basis, from 30% last December to 39% in April. Taking an average of surveys conducted this year, 36% say they are independents, 35% are Democrats, while 23% are Republicans. On an annual basis, the only previous year when independent identification has been this high was in 1992 when Ross Perot ran a popular independent candidacy.
The challenge in the data is highlighted here:
While they like and approve of Barack Obama, as a group independents are more skittish than they were two years ago about expanding the social safety net and are reluctant backers of greater government involvement in the private sector. Yet at the same time, they continue to more closely parallel the views of Democrats rather than Republicans on the most divisive core beliefs on social values, religion and national security.
As I’ve noted, given the gap in party ID (which our polls show is NOT as wide as this poll shows, but there is clearly a significant ID deficit), GOP candidates have to do VERY well with Independents — making them the main target of our general election campaigns.
Thus far this election cycle, our opportunity with Independents comes along two paths — the need for more Republicans in Congress to act as a check and balance, and the need to get spending under control. Yes, Republicans overspent during the Bush Administration, but it’s peanuts compared to what the Democrats are now spending.
