(This article was co-authored by Jim Hobart.)

While Democrats and the liberal media have spent the last few months trying to drive the narrative that the Republican Party does not have a leader, they have ignored the mounting problem they have with one of the undisputed leaders of their own party.

In a recent Financial Dynamics survey, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s image was 27% fav/44% unfav.  That data was prior to her recent attempt to cover her backside by attacking the CIA as lieing to her.   The Daily Kos poll taken a week ago (as this storm was breaking) found Pelosi with a similar 34% fav/50% unfav image rating.  It takes a lot of work for a member of Congress to be so reviled nationally — it is certainly an unusual occurence, and affords the GOP an opportunity to define congressional Democrats as Pelosi’s poodles.

Pelosi has never been a popular figure nationally (her image just before she became speaker in December 2006 was an underwhelming 25% fav/23% unfav), but this is the worst her image has ever been. With the Speaker not doing herself any favors by accusing the CIA of lying to Congress, Pelosi’s problems show no signs of going away anytime soon, and her increasing unpopularity with voters represents a real opportunity for Republicans.

While President Obama continues to enjoy strong approval ratings, his popularity has not carried over to Dems in Congress. In a recent Washington Post poll, Congressional Dems’ approval rating is a polarized 45% approve/49% approve. Obama’s approval rating continues to be in the high 50s to low 60s, so clearly, Republican candidates are far better off positioning themselves as an alternative to the Dems in Congress than as an alternative to President Obama. Speaker Nancy Pelosi is the face-lifted face of the Dems in Congress and arguably the second most influential Democrat leader in Washington. Her increasing unpopularity and the controversies she continues to create for herself has her teetering on the edge of a cliff in the minds of many voters. Republicans would be wise to do all they can to make sure she falls.

As POS partner, Glen Bolger recently commented to Politico, “This issue is at the intersection of good policy and good politics. All in favor of having Gitmo terrorists housed in your congressional district, raise your hand. Whoa — no hands go up!” Well, no kidding…

The more this issue gets discussed, the more the public seems to be questioning the wisdom in closing Gitmo. While it may seem like a simple idea to close the prison, what comes next is a huge headache for the Obama Administration – what do they do with the inmates?

In our recent NBC/WSJ survey,* 42{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of respondents say they approve of Obama ordering the closure of Guantanamo Bay prison for terror suspects while a majority (50{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) say they disapprove. No surprise here – Democrats are more likely to approve of this action – 65{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} to 26{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} – while Republicans disapprove, 73{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} to 20{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}. Importantly though, Independents disapprove by almost a two-to-one margin (62{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove/32{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve).

Having your Base behind you in a key policy decision is obviously crucial, and having your opposition against you is to be expected – but to be at such a disadvantage among the middle of the electorate should give the Obama Administration cause for concern, especially when that’s just the start of the conversation.

Debating what to do with the inmates creates even more resistance. In a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll,** voters were asked, “In talking about what might happen to detainees when the Guantanamo Bay prison is closed, recently National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair said some of the prisoners may be released into the United States and suggested it may be necessary to give them assistance for them to start a new life. Do you favor or oppose using taxpayer dollars to help prisoners released from Guantanamo Bay?” This trial balloon didn’t even get off the ground with a whopping 72{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} opposed to it.  And, on this point there is little partisan difference – 86{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Republicans, 78{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Independents, and 60{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Democrats would oppose this plan.

So, while in theory, Obama may enjoy some support from his Base on this issue, when it gets down to the nitty gritty of what to do next, even Democrats default to some good old “not-in-my-backyard”-ism – and it’s unlikely they’ll be putting their hands up any time soon to have Gitmo terrorists in their neighborhood.

*National survey of 1,005 adults conducted April 23-26, 2009.

**National survey of 900 registered voters conducted April 22-23, 2009.

(Public Opinion Strategies partners with Peter D. Hart Research Associates to conduct the NBC/WSJ polls. Neither Peter D. Hart Research Associates, NBC/WSJ, or Fox News/Opinion Dynamics are responsible for these conclusions.)

While we’re not in the habit of linking to Democratic blogs, a recent post breaking down the Gallup party ID data by age was sent to my attention by my friend Steve Moore.

The posting takes a look at the party ID gap of voters in Gallup surveys aggregated from the last four months.  It then breaks down that data based on which Presidential election occured when people were first eligible to vote. 

From the post:

Democrats, somewhat unsurprisingly, have the largest partisan ID advantage among Gen Y’ers, followed by among Baby Boomers. Republicans do relatively well (although are still at a net disadvantage) among Generation X’ers.

What’s interesting, though, is what happens when we look at not these abstract generational categories, but rather at the following question: who was President when you turned 18? As annotated in the chart below, the popularity — or lack thereof — of the President when the voter turned 18 would seem to have a lot of explanatory power for how their politics turned out later on(.)

The posting then has a chart that shows the current GOP party ID disadvantage is smallest among people who came of voting age during the Reagan Presidency, the Carter Presidency, and the Eisenhower Presidency.   The gap is widest (favoring the Dems) among voters who came of age  during the first Nixon election, and during the Bush 43 years.

The post’s author then makes the point:

(Y)ou can still see the echo of past Presidencies on the partisan ID trends today. Popular presidents are associated with above-average levels of party support among the generation that came of age during their time in office, whereas unpopular Presidents are associated with below-average ones.

It is further evidence of the challenges Republicans face among young voters.

(The article was co-authored by Matthew Jason.)

We all know The Golden State was not friendly to the Republican Party in November of 2008 when President Obama (61{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) received more than 3.2 million more votes in the state than John McCain (37{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}). Voter ethnicity played a large role in this colossal Democratic landslide in California. According to CNN Exit Polls, ninety-four percent (94{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of African American Voters, seventy-four percent (74{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of Hispanic/Latino Voters, and sixty-four percent (64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of Asian Voters in California cast a vote for Barack Obama.

Further, all indications are that minority voter turnout reached unprecedented levels in California in 2008. Since the Secretary of State does not track ethnicity on the voter file or release any participation statistics by ethnicity, the ability to measure voter turnout in California along ethnic lines is not an exact science. That being said, we have studied the exit polls and carefully analyzed some other key data from the voter file in order to confirm the high minority voter turnout numbers, and they definitely appear legitimate.

The exit polls show that a full ten percent (10{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of California’s voters last November were African American, eighteen percent (18{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) were Hispanic/Latino, and six percent (6{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) were Asian. Only sixty-three percent (63{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of California voters were White in 2008, down from sixty-six percent (66{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) in 2004 and seventy-one percent (71{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) in 2000. These numbers clearly illustrate that White Voters in California do not carry nearly as much clout now as they did ten years ago. This means that trying to win enough of the White vote to offset the minority vote is not a legitimate strategy in California. If you cannot do the math yourself, just look at North Carolina where McCain won sixty-four percent (64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of the White vote and still lost the state.

So we know that minority voters turned out in huge numbers in 2008, but will they continue to do so in future elections, even when a minority candidate is not at the top of the ticket? We believe they will continue to vote, and we believe that they will continue to become more and more important every election for one simple reason, they are much younger than White Voters. As part of our merge data, we interviewed over 22,000 White Voters, and only twenty-seven percent (27{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of them were under age 45. The under 45 number was fifty-seven (57{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) among Hispanic/Latino Voters (over 4100 interviews) and fifty-three percent (53{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) among Asian Voters (over 1200 interviews).

More than a quarter (26{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of the White Voters we interviewed were over age 65 as compared to just nine percent (9{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of the Hispanic/Latino and Asian Voters respectively which fit into this “senior” demographic. Logic tells us natural attrition is going to take a much bigger toll on White Voters every year than it will on minority voters. This is not good news for a Republican Party which continues to rely too heavily on the White vote, especially here in California.

If the Republican Party is going to again become competitive in California, we must reach out to minority voters in general and Hispanic/Latino and Asian Voters specifically. We must learn what issues motivate them. We must craft messages specifically targeted to them. And, we must figure out how best to reach them with these new messages, one household at a time. This will not be easy, especially with Obama in power, but we need to start expending the time and resources right now if we ever expect to get the job done.