What would a two-incumbent election mean for voters? - Public Opinion Strategies

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What would a two-incumbent election mean for voters?

January 5, 2024

A recent National Review article with analysis from partner Bill McInturff explains. Read more here.

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MOST RECENT

With the government re-opening today, here is some important historical context. Yes, Democrats have seen an improvement on the generic ballot DURING previous shutdowns. But, once the shutdown is over, the generic ballot has historically bounced back to where it was PRIOR to the shutdown.
Nov 13, 2025 One reason the Mamdani win in New York City is not a huge surprise? Nationally, Democrats now give capitalism a net negative rating for the first time in our tracking (25% favorable/45% unfavorable). That is a net 38 point drop from 2018.
Nov 6, 2025 History does not repeat, but it does rhyme. Six years after AOC toppled one giant of New York politics, Zohran Mamdani is poised to do the same. Notably, Mamdani’s national image at this point in his political career is almost exactly the same as AOC’s image nationally at the outset of her career in politics. Only in New York can a 34 year old political candidate from the fringe of their party garner national name ID in the 70% range.
Nov 4, 2025 We could see very high turnout in key races tonight. 66% of voters in the latest NBC News poll say they are “very interested” in the election NEXT November. That is the highest ever in in the off-year before a midterm election. Stunningly, the 66% number is higher than what we measured just a few weeks before the 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018 midterm elections.
Nov 4, 2025 The latest NBC News poll finds that fewer than 30% of voters have a positive view of the Democratic party. The GOP holds strong advantages over Democrats on border security, immigration broadly, and dealing with crime. 42% of voters blame Democrats in Congress for the shutdown, compared to 25% for Republicans, and 24% for President Trump. Additionally, a record high 79% of voters say they use social media daily.
Nov 2, 2025

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