230370 North Dakota Statewide – Final 1.29.24
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NEIL NEWHOUSE/LUKE JACKSON
SUBJECT: NORTH DAKOTA SURVEY RESULTS
DATE: JANUARY 29, 2024
METHODOLOGY
Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of N=500 likely voters in North Dakota on behalf of an energy client from December 8-18, 2023. The survey was conducted via a mixed-mode online panel and text-to-web methodology and has a credibility interval of ± 5% in 95 out of 100 cases. The purpose of this memo is to review the key findings from the survey.
THE BOTTOM LINE
North Dakotans know the energy sector is critical to the health of the state’s economy and express a high level of concern about the threat posed by China’s and other countries’ weaker environmental standards that lead to higher pollution.
North Dakota voters across the board – young and old, conservative and moderate, Republican primary voters across the spectrum (including those very “pro-Trump”) – believe the federal government needs to do more to help American and North Dakotan energy companies remain competitive with global competitors.
North Dakotans overwhelmingly support policies – including research quantifying emissions of U.S.-produced goods compared to those of global competitors (AKA, Senator Cramer’s PROVE IT Act) – that level the playing field for American energy producers and hold high polluting countries accountable for their pollution.
KEY FINDINGS
North Dakota voters want the federal government to do more to help North Dakota’s energy companies compete globally.
Nearly all voters (85%) see the state’s energy sector as either “extremely” (45%) or “very” important to the state’s economy, including 92% of Republican Primary Voters.
That’s why 62% of likely voters and 72% of Republican Primary voters believe the federal government should do more to help North Dakota energy companies compete with global competition, while just 23% of likely voters and 15% of Republican Primary Voters believe the federal government is currently “doing enough.”
Voters believe current manufacturing and environmental standards in the U.S. are cleaner than our international competitors.
Over two-thirds of North Dakota voters believe environmental standards used by companies in the U.S. are as clean (26%) or cleaner (43%) than our international competitors, including strong majorities of Republicans (77%) and Democrats (58%).
High pollution practices help make China a threat to US economic security.
Across multiple measures, North Dakotans express concerns about U.S. economic competitiveness. Almost all voters (91%) believe China and Russia are a serious threat to the economic security of the U.S.And nearly all (91%) North Dakota voters believe China uses weak environmental laws and high pollution practices to gain a competitive advantage over American energy companies. These sentiments cut across every demographic, ideological and geographic subgroup in the poll, including 93% of Republicans, 89% of Democrats, and 88% of Independent voters.
North Dakotans overwhelmingly support policies to level the playing field for American energy producers.
Given the results above, it is easy to see why wide majorities of voters in the state support policies to penalize high polluting countries and create a more competitive environment for American energy producers.
Indeed, 83% of North Dakotans – including strong majorities across every ideological subgroup – believe, “the US federal government should enact policies that discourage the importation of foreign products made with higher levels of pollution and reward U.S. energy producers for their cleaner production.”
Further, nine-in-ten North Dakota voters believe that foreign countries with more pollution should be held accountable when their high pollution products enter the United States to help ensure U.S. manufacturers and energy producers can compete fairly. This includes 89% of Republican Primary Voters, 97% of Democrats, and more than three-quarters of every demographic, ideological and geographic subgroup in the poll.
Support for research that would quantify countries with the cleanest production standards receives strong and broad support among North Dakota voters.
When asked whether they “support or oppose legislation that calls for research to be completed comparing the emissions intensity of U.S. produced goods compared to those from countries around the globe?”, fully 72% of likely voters say they support such legislation. This simplified explanation of Senator Cramer’s PROVE IT Act wins approval across the board – from Republican Primary Voters (70%), self-described Moderates (67%), and Liberals (93%), all strongly supportive of this legislation.
And when asked if they would be more likely or less likely to support a candidate for elected office who supports this legislation to produce high quality data to hold foreign countries accountable for their dirty manufacturing policies, fully 70% of North Dakota voters say they would be more likely to support that candidate. That includes 70% of Republican Primary Voters, 70% of 2020 Trump Voters, and 79% of 2020 Biden voters. Only 8% of voters say that would make them less likely to vote for that candidate for elected office.