Americans think health care protests not un-American.

This article was co-written by Glen Bolger and Jim Hobart.

As the health care debate moves from the Capitol in D.C. to high school gymnasiums across the country, Democrats still find themselves on the losing end of the message battle and their hopes for creating a government-controlled and taxpayer-funded system continue to dwindle. Two recently released polls, one conducted by Gallup for USA Today, and the other by the Pew Research Center, help illustrate why the Dem health care plan is on life support.

The two polls make clear that Americans are paying close attention to what has been happening in town halls across the country. In the Gallup poll, 69% of adults say they are closely following the news about the town hall meetings. The numbers are similar in the Pew poll, with 78% saying they have heard about the health care protests at town hall meetings, and half (49%) saying they have heard a lot about the protests. Americans clearly recognize the importance of this policy debate.

The second thing that jumps out from these two polls is that, contrary to the story being pushed by the liberal media, Americans agree with what the protestors are saying and how they are saying it. When respondents in the Gallup poll were asked if the protests against the proposed health care bill made them more or less sympathetic to the views of the protestors, 34% said they made them more sympathetic, just 21% say they have made them less sympathetic, and 36% say the protests have made no difference to them.

Even more tellingly, in the Pew poll, respondents who have heard about the protests were asked if they thought the way people were protesting at the meetings was appropriate or inappropriate. Fully 61% of adults said the protests were appropriate. Eighty percent (80%) of GOPers, 64% of Independents, and even 40% of Democrats say the protests are being conducted appropriately.

The data in these two surveys makes it abundantly clear that President Obama and the Dems in Congress have been unable to change the momentum of the heath care debate during the August recess. Americans continue to have major concerns about the health care proposals being floated in the House and Senate, and these worries are being voiced in town hall meetings throughout the nation. Voters are paying close attention to questions these anxious and concerned citizens are asking and, much to the chagrin of Democrats, they do not like the answers they are hearing.

As Congress splits town for the August recess, Members return to their districts where Americans are giving them a pretty poor report card. Our late July NBC/WSJ poll* shows the country is pretty unimpressed with Nancy Pelosi and the Congress as a whole.

Just one-quarter (24%) approves of the job Congress is doing, and disapproval (63%) is as high as we’ve seen since President Obama’s inauguration. However, what’s even more disconcerting for this Democrat-controlled Congress is the fact that for the first time since January (before Obama took office) self-identified Democrats also offer a net negative rating (37% approve, 46% disapprove).

Speaker Pelosi doesn’t fair much better. One-in-four (25%) Americans say they have a positive impression of her, while 44% say they have a negative impression (16% are neutral). This is a significant drop in her personal rating from 31% positive, 37% negative back in February.

Her image is especially weak among Independents (16% positive, 52% negative) and she barely has a net positive image among Blue Dog Democrats (defined in this poll as White moderate and conservative Democrats), 32% of whom have a positive impression of her compared to 28% who have a negative impression. And, as far as the gender gap goes – it doesn’t get much more dramatic than this. By 33 points men give her a net negative rating (20% positive, 53% negative), while women tend to have a more balanced view (29% positive, 36% negative).

Underscoring some of these results, the gap on the generic Congressional ballot is as narrow as we’ve measured since April 2006 with 39% saying they would prefer a Republican-controlled Congress versus 46% who would prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress.

Although Republicans still have work to do they have made some significant progress with the Base. White men are now posting a double-digit preference for Republican control (+13), and White women – who by 8 points preferred Democrat control in April – are now tied (42% Republican control, 42% Democrat control).

While it’s still early in the 2010 cycle, these are some fairly troublesome numbers for Democrat Members of Congress to deal with – especially when you consider the long rocky road that lies ahead as they struggle with a pet hair vacuum guide restless electorate on the hot-button issues of health care, the economy, and the federal deficit.

*National survey of 1,011 adults conducted July 24-27, 2009
(Public Opinion Strategies partners with Peter D. Hart Research Associates to conduct the NBC/WSJ polls. Neither Peter D. Hart Research Associates nor NBC/WSJ are responsible for these conclusions.)
 
 
 

 

 

In June I wrote about the need for the Republican Party to act on the public’s increasing dissatisfaction over the level of government spending and their concern about the ever-increasing federal deficit. Our latest NBC/WSJ poll* shows this a real and growing opportunity, with the public starting to thaw on the GOP – at least when it comes to issues relating to the fiscal health of our country.

We asked Americans to tell us which party they think does a better job handling a series of issues. Of the eleven we tested, the Republican Party had the edge on six, and the Democratic Party on five. This result alone is a vast improvement as the last time these issues were tested the GOP held the advantage on just two (promoting strong moral values and the war on terrorism).

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The news gets better. On each of the five issues the Democrats are perceived as handling better their margin has slipped, and of the six issues where the public gives Republicans the edge, the GOP has taken back control from Democrats in three:

Controlling government spending:  In July 2007 (the last time we tested this issue) Democrats held a 16-point advantage, today Americans give the Republican Part a nine-point edge.

Dealing with taxes:  Although Democrats only had a mere one-point lead on this in July 2008, the last time Republicans had the advantage was in January 2004 (2 points). Today by a seven-point margin the public perceives the Republican Party as better able to deal with taxes.

Dealing with the federal deficit:  The public has swung from giving Democrats a 22-point advantage in January 2008 to giving the Republican Party a six-point edge today. The last time the GOP took the lead on this was in September 1997!

And, while the public still gives the Democratic Party a six-point advantage on dealing with economy, this is down 10 points from a year ago, and there are other measures that point to Republican opportunities. A plurality (43%) now think the economic stimulus package is a bad idea (compared to 34% who say it is a good idea), and less than three-in-ten (28%) say it will help the American economy a “great deal” or “quite a bit” over the next year. Two-thirds (67%) say it will help “only a little” or “not at all.”

And, our key question that reveals how Americans feel about all of this is basically unchanged from last month. A solid 59% (including the majority of independents) still say the president and Congress should “worry more about keeping the budget deficit down, even though it may mean it will take longer for the economy to recover,” compared to just 36% who say they should “worry more about boosting the economy even if it may mean larger budget deficits now and in the future.”

These numbers couldn’t be clearer. The public is greatly concerned about government spending and the federal debt, and they are starting to look to the Republican Party for alternative solutions.

*National survey of 1,011 adults conducted July 24-27, 2009
(Public Opinion Strategies partners with Peter D. Hart Research Associates to conduct the NBC/WSJ polls. Neither Peter D. Hart Research Associates nor NBC/WSJ are responsible for these conclusions.)
 
 

 

 

Remember this line from The Perfect Storm uttered by Bobby Shatford (Mark Wahlberg)?

Skip, what are we gonna do about those numbers? They suck.

Kind of captures how The White House may be looking at the recent flurry of negative polls showing the President’s approval rating sinking, the air going out of his health care proposal and Americans losing faith in his economic programs.

But, as bad as it is right now, The Perfect Storm is about to hit.  While few would have imagined it six months ago, the President’s health care push now embodies many of the touchstone issues of the past generation:

  • Tax increases.
  • Government (over)spending.
  • Health care affordability.
  • Health care access.
  • Abortion.
  • The deficit.

The message that Members of Congress are going to hear from their constituents during their August recess is NOT how badly the country needs health care reform, but rather they’ll hear very pointed questions centered around one of the above issues:

  • I thought this was revenue neutral – who’s going to pay for it?
  • How can we afford to spend more money now after the trillions the government has already spent (on an economic stimulus that has had no impact)?
  • How does raising my taxes make my health care more affordable?
  • So, this health care reform doesn’t even cover everyone?
  • It provides federal funding for abortions?
  • How do you rationalize pushing the cost of this plan onto our children and grandchildren?

This health care proposal has become a political focal point for some of the most salient issue debates of the past generation.  And, it is the combination of these issues at this point in time, with a flagging economy, and a Democratic Congress hell-bent on pushing ahead that make this the perfect storm for the Obama Administration.  It very well could be an early “tipping-point.”

The Wall Street Journal quotes Bill McInturff in an article on how Americans feel about health care reform.

“Health care is intensely personal,” says Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who co-directs the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll and has long studied attitudes about health care. “It’s not like welfare. It’s about me.”

Politico published an article about a possible match up between Sen. Byron Dorgan and Gov. John Hoeven in North Dakota.

“These are two folks that a lot of people know — and a lot of people have favorable opinions of both of them,” said Ulm. “But we have a national political environment that is starting to trend away from the Democratic Party, and if who’s in charge gets blamed, Dorgan’s going to be shouldering much of the blame.”

Public Opinion Strategies