A few weeks ago in a posting, I noted that the enthusiasm gap across 26 districts was worth an average of just over five points for Republicans. I also predicted that the gap would experience natural tightening, ending up in the two-to-four point range. Well, based on an average across 28 Democratic-held districts this week, […]
read moreBack in June, the survey that Stan Greenberg and I conducted for NPR was huge news. Conducted in 60 Democrat-held and 10 Republican-held seats, it showed Republicans ahead by a 48{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}-39{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} count in the Tier 1 seats (30 most vulnerable) and up 47{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}-45{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in the Tier 2 seats (next 30 seats). It was the first […]
read moreAt the entrance to the Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort in South Carolina is a sign that reads, “The noise you hear is the sound of freedom.” Well, the noise you hear right now is the sound of Democrats whistling past the graveyard, with various claims that they are surging – by both closing the […]
read moreBuoyed because they are not losing in all strong Democratic states or districts, there is a whistling past the grave yard argument being made by some Dems and pundits that the enthusiasm gap is closing. And that’s partly true. The enthusiasm gap has narrowed slightly. But it was bound to narrow. The 2010 enthusiasm gap […]
read moreDO stay focused on the big picture. This election is about big things – economy/jobs, spending, keeping taxes from increasing, health care – all of which are related to the growth of the size and scope of government. DON’T focus a lot of effort on issue cul-de-sacs like the World Trade Center Mosque or […]
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