This article was co-written by Jim Hobart and Glen Bolger.

As President Obama uses his two favorite Presidential toys, the Teleprompter and the bully pulpit, to push his health care plan, public poll after public poll continues to show his numbers dropping across the board. While his job approval remains comfortably over 50%, (55.9% according to the average at www.realclearpolitics.com), his numbers on issues like the economy and health care are hovering around or below 50%. Voters have become more wary of the way Obama is handling these issues as indicated by a growing belief that the President is increasing spending and growing government far too quickly. 

In a recent Gallup survey, fully 59% of Americans say the President’s proposals call for too much spending. Not surprisingly, 90% of Republicans share this view, but a look at the numbers among Independents and Democrats reveal why the continued spending hikes are a real problem for the President. A significant majority (66%) of Independents echo the Republican view that the President is spending too much, and, in the most surprising data from the survey, 28% of Democrats say his plans call for too much spending. In previous surveys, while we have seen some doubting of the President among Independents, he always had outstanding numbers among his own party. The 28% of Dems who say the President’s plans call for too much spending are a sign that, at least on spending issues, Democrats no longer see the President as walking on water.

From the same Gallup survey, more than half (52%) of Americans say that Obama’s proposals call for too much government expansion. The vast majority (82%) of Republicans, share this view, as well as more than half (60%) of Independents, and even 17% of Democrats. Again, while the number of Dems who say Obama’s plans call for too much government expansion is low, he is no longer getting the near unanimous support from his own party that he once was.

Underscoring the concern that he is doing too much is a recent AP poll (how does the media have so much money to do all this polling in this day and age of shrinking budgets?). In April, their poll found that only 32% believe the Obama Administration is “trying to change things too quickly,” but that number is up to 49% now – a stunning 17 point increase in just three months.

Voters across party lines are growing increasingly nervous about Obama’s numerous policy proposals that increase spending and expand the role of government. As his pushes for cap and trade legislation and health care reform demonstrate, he and his administration are certainly not through, and a message of Obama pursuing a government that is too big and costs too much has the potential to resonate throughout the 2010 election cycle.

Slow down, you move too fast

You’ve got to make the morning last

Just kickin’ down the cobble stones

Looking for fun and feelin’ groovy!

Abundant apologies to Simon and Garfunkel, but doesn’t the recent CBS national poll regarding Obama and his policies reflect a public that believe he’s breaking the speed limit with his policies and has little to show for it?

From that CBS poll:

• A majority of Americans believe that Obama has been trying to accomplish too much in his first few months on office (52%), while 39% say his pace has been about right.

• Americans are divided as to whether the US can afford to fix health care right now because of the nation’s economy.  (49% say fix it now, 46% say we can’t afford it.)

• By a 33%-21% margin, Americans believe the national economy is getting worse.

• But, perhaps the most telling number from this survey is the erosion in the mood of the country.  While CBS’ June data showed voters believed the country to be on the wrong track by a 50%-44% margin, that figure is now 57%-35%.

In other words, things are turning AGAINST Obama as Americans express concern about the pace of his “changes,” with no markers in the road denoting successes.

And, now, with the economic stimulus package becoming “unsold,” is health care reform “a bridge too far?” (But, then again, that’s a different Simon and Garfunkel song altogether!)

President Obama and Democrats in Congress have plunged into a full fox trot with Keynesian economics, swooping past all records of deficit spending in an attempt to lift the U.S. economy. While Democratic voters have generally swooned over the jitterbug pace at which the Administration and Congress has blown through budget barriers, they may be pushing Independent voters back into the arms of Republicans.

To read the rest of our July e-Answers, please click here.

Here at Public Opinion Strategies, it is axiomatic that a president’s job approval is held captive by the mood of the country.  Between President Obama’s swearing in and early June, national right direction numbers ballooned from 28% up to 46% while his job approval hovered in the low 60s. Since early June, right direction numbers have dropped to 38% and his job approval to 57% (four-survey average).

This is the start of the Obama drop.

It’s the simplest of questions but also the most telling: “Do you think the country is headed in the right direction or is it off on the wrong track?” When Americans are optimistic and believe the country is heading in the right direction, they voice approval for the president.  But when Americans are pessimistic, the president’s support takes a nose dive.

Here’s the rule: Right direction numbers are the leading indicator; they drop first and the president’s job approval soon follows.

A president’s job approval will poll a maximum of 17 points – often less – over the national right direction number.  Need proof?  In October of ‘06, just 26% of Americans believed the country was headed in the right direction and only 38% approved of President Bush.  In October of ‘04, 41% of Americans believed the country was heading in the right direction and 49% approved of President Bush.  The numbers go on and on.

This link is not new.  In October of ‘98, right direction numbers were at 55% and Clinton’s job approval was 65%. In October, ‘96, the numbers were 42% and 56% respectively.

The bottom line is that this is gravity.  And, no president can defy it for long.

Between June 23 and July 12, three-out-of-four national surveys featured on realclearpolitics.com had the national right direction numbers in the thirties, with an average of 38%; two-of-four had wrong track at 60% or higher, and a near-miss of 57% and an average of 57%.

Again, this is the leading indicator.  Thirty-eight percent right direction numbers means President Obama will soon have a maximum job approval of 55% and sinking.

What caused it? Previous posts (More Misery Index) have detailed the rock-solid connection between the economy and the strength of the party in power.  With consumer confidence sinking like a stone and the unemployment rate about to crest the double-digit mark, President Obama has taken ownership of America’s economic woes and the public is figuring it out.