Neil Newhouse was quoted in a National Journal article about President Obama’s declining poll numbers.
“Once his job approval hits the percentage of the vote he got on Election Day, that means… his honeymoon is over,” said GOP pollster Neil Newhouse. “That’s the official demarcation denoting the end of the honeymoon. It was a good one for him, it lasted six months, but now he’s back to where he was on Election Day.”
Charlie Cook from National Journal also comments on the recent WSJ/NBC poll.
Bill McInturff was quoted in a post on NBC’s First Read about Obama’s place in partisan politics.
NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) says Obama had been flying above the partisan fray, but he’s now come back down to earth. “The question I asked back in February was: When does political gravity take hold? The answer is in this survey. It is happening now.”
There were several sobering findings in the NPR poll done by POS and GQR (neither NPR nor GQR are responsible for any of the conclusions in this posting). One of which is that the GOP counter message on cap and trade/energy got spanked by the Democrat message by 13 points, including seven on intensity.
(I know what you are thinking — “Glen, health care is so now, while cap and trade is a few months ago — why focus on it now?” Well, the issue is going to be part of the 2010 debate, and the data could not be clearer on what Republicans need to make sure to include in our messaging!)
Stan Greenberg wrote the Democrat message on energy, and I wrote the GOP response. I intentionally left any GOP message on alternative fuels out, because I wanted to see how a message that simply refuted the Dem policy would do. The answer? Not well, as these results show:
Q.30 As you may have heard, the U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a major energy bill. I am going to read you two statements about that bill. After I read these statements, please tell me which one comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Democrats say for too long we’ve relied on the same old, dirty energy sources. This bill will get America running on clean energy by rewarding companies that produce alternative energy and requiring companies to reduce their pollution. It will require more of our energy to come from alternative sources like wind and solar and it uses America’s technological know-how to recharge our economy with new industries, creating 1.7 million new jobs while reducing our dependence on foreign oil and unstable parts of the world. It will cost families less than 15 dollars a month.
OR
Republicans say this cap and trade bill is a $2,000 per year hidden tax on average families. It puts a tax on companies that all Americans will end up paying every time they drive, flip on a light switch, or cool their house. Rather than help create new jobs, this hidden tax will make it even more difficult for American manufacturing businesses to compete, and will send jobs to countries like China and India who refuse to play by the same rules. This new tax hits those who can least afford it — families and small businesses struggling to survive the recession.
Total
Dem statement strongly ……………………………………………… 39
Dem statement not strongly ………………………………………… 14
Rep statement not strongly ………………………………………….. 8
Rep statement strongly ………………………………………………. 32
Total Dem statement………………………………………………… 53
Total Rep statement …………………………………………………. 40
It’s crystal clear that a GOP energy message which does not include the need to expand and grow alternative fuels is lacking a key component. Every time over the past two years that I have tested a GOP message that doesn’t include alternative energy, it is a stone cold loser. Every time that GOP message includes an alternative energy component, it does significantly better. More oil, less taxes is not enough.
GOP campaigns have to do more than pay lip service to alternative energy. It has to be a key component of any plan for BOTH the energy solutions to the challenges we face, AND the environmental solutions to the challenges we face in this country. Do NOT give alternative energy short shrift — there is zero evidence that it’s a good idea to do so. This is not simply one poll result — these findings are consistent and proven.
POSTSCRIPT: Because of smart questions/comments I received on Facebook, I’ve added a bit to this post.
First, the data breaks down as as 46% Dem message/42% GOP message among Independents. Which is significantly CLOSER than the overall result. That discrepancy is because Dems are more unified on this issue than GOPers. Dem voters opt for the Dem message 85%-10%, while GOPers stick with the GOP message just 72%-22%. That, and, as I’ve noted many times before, there are now more Dems than GOPers in the country on party ID.
The other point to clarify is not that Republicans should be for this bill (that’s up to individual candidates based on their values and their districts to decide. It’s that Republicans can’t just be AGAINST this, they also have to have an alternative. And, based on all the data I’ve seen this year, the “All of the Above” approach still resonates VERY well. But, we have to avoid the mistake of focusing just on more oil/coal, and need to highlight options for green, alternative energy. Candidates opposed to that point of view simply because Dems are for it would be making a significant error in both policy AND politics.
For a President that the media has both compared to God, and worshiped like one, Barack Obama has fallen on some tough times. Not horrendous times, but he’s not exactly walking on water any more. The latest poll conducted by GQR and POS highlights some of the public opinion challenges that have slowed Obama’s direct ascension into heaven.
(This analysis does not reflect the opinions of GQR or NPR. For the GQR perspective, click here. And, for the NPR story, click here.) Both are worth reading.
A number of challenges stand out for Obama:
It’s not so much that his approval rating is down to 53%, while his disapproval rating is up to 42%. That’s, at worst, mixed. Remember, George W. Bush beat John Kerry at a time when Bush had a 49% approve/48% disapprove rating. And, that was essentially the high point of the second Bush term. Instead, it’s that already as many people strongly disapprove (34%) as strongly approve (33%). Thus, intensity is turning against Obama.
Voters oppose Obama’s health care plan — just 42% favor it, while 47% oppose it. Stan Greenberg made the case that the plan is at a tipping point for public opinion, but once Obama has a specific plan to sell, the data will improve. That may be true short-term, but with only 25% strongly favoring what they are hearing so far, and 39% strongly opposed, Obama is losing the intensity fight. Certainly a lot depends on the details of the bill, but voters clearly question whether Obama is more snake oil salesman on health care than he is successful faith healer.
There is significant skepticism toward the impact of Obama’s economic policies. By a 48%-45% margin, voters say that “Obama’s economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession of slow the record pace of job losses” instead of his “economic policies helped avert an even worse crisis, and are laying the foundation for our eventual economic recovery.” Again, intensity is problematic for him — 38% strongly agree with the “record deficit/failing to end the recession” while 29% strongly agree with the pro-Obama statement.
Overall, Obama’s approval has dropped thirteen net points in the four months since the last NPR poll. And, the shift has come almost entirely on intensity. He’s gone from 38% strong approve/27% strong disapprove in March to 33% strong approve/34% strong disapprove now.
Looking at subgroups, the shift has come nearly equally with men (-11) and women (-15). Keep in mind, however, women (56% approve/38% disapprove) are still much more positive then men (49%-46%).
Independents have dropped from 53%-41% to 45%-46% — a net negative thirteen point shift. GOPers dropped a net 20 points to 15% approve/79% disapprove. Obama still walks on water with Dems — he’s got a 90% approve/6% disapprove rating with them. The latter group will move slowly — Independents are the key to watch. If Obama goes up it will be because of Independents. Down? A further slide with Independents and some more erosion with partisans.
Conservatives have really turned against Obama — moving from 36%-56% to 23%-71%.
Obama’s numbers have dropped the least with college-educated women, and dropped the most with non-college men.
The President may be as easygoing as George Burns, but Americans are no longer putting him up on a pedestal.
Oregon Public Radio posted an article discussing the recent decline in Obama’s approval ratings and referenced a recent NPR poll conducted by POS and Greenburg.
Power Line quotes Neil Newhouse in post about Sarah Palin’s political future on the national stage.
The first comes from pollster Neil Newhouse. He says: “It’s unquestionable that [Palin] has a future in the GOP, but it’s a bit more in doubt whether she has a future with the general electorate.” Newhouse adds that Palin “has a considerable rehabilitation job ahead of her to win the support of non-GOPers.”
Gene Ulm is quoted in an AP article in the New York Times about the future of Sen. Vitter.
Gene Ulm, a Republican consultant who does polling for Vitter, said voters are in no mood to hear attacks about Vitter’s personal life. Instead, Ulm said, the election will be largely about Democrats’ handling of the economy. Officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee already are signaling that if Melancon runs, the GOP would focus its campaign on his support for recent economic bailouts and stimulus spending.
”We know that midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power,” Ulm said. ”When you have an economic environment like this … if it doesn’t have to do with people’s economic worries and hardships, it’s just immaterial.”
AZCentral.com mentioned a POS poll in Arizona concerning a possible sales tax hike.
The NPR bi-partisan polling team of Glen Bolger from Public Opinion Strategies and Stan Greenberg from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research just released a new survey this morning.
Link to the questionnaire with the results here. We’ve also got charts of the results.
I will be posting more in-depth findings from the survey throughout the week, so be sure to check back.
