Key Findings from a National Survey of Republican Voters – Memo

TO:                         INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:                  NEIL NEWHOUSE

SUBJECT:            NATIONAL GOP SURVEY RESULTS

DATE:                    DECEMBER 20, 2024

METHODOLOGY

On behalf of an energy client, Public Opinion Strategies completed a national survey of N=1,000 Republican registered voters who cast ballots in the November Presidential election.  The survey was conducted December 4-9, 2024 via a mixed-mode online panel and text-to-web methodology and has a credibility interval of  ± 3.53 in 95 out of 100 cases.  The purpose of this memo is to review the key findings from the survey.                            

THE BOTTOM LINE

Not only do GOP voters nationally overwhelmingly consider China to pose an economic threat to the United States, but they believe China doesn’t play by the rules, using weak environmental laws and high pollution practices to gain a competitive advantage over American companies.

There is near a consensus that foreign countries with more pollution (including China) should be held accountable when their products enter the US so that American companies have a level playing field. Further, they strongly support placing a tariff on high pollution products entering the US to ensure American manufacturers can compete fairly.

Finally, even when posed with arguments on either side of the “pollution tariff” issue, more than three-fourths of GOP voters remain committed to supporting “pollution tariffs.”

KEY FINDINGS

China is considered a serious threat to the economic security of the United States by fully 90% of Republicans.

More than half of Republicans interviewed (54%) believe that China poses a “very serious” threat to the economic security of the US, while another 36% say China poses a “somewhat serious” threat.

More than 80% of Republicans believe that “China uses weak environmental laws and high pollution practices to gain a competitive advantage over American companies.”

By an 82%-5% margin, Republicans believe the following statement is true

China uses weak environmental laws and high pollution practices to gain a competitive advantage over American companies.

Republican voters overwhelmingly support policies that discourage the importation of foreign products made with higher levels of pollution and believe that foreign countries should be held accountable for such practices.

By an 89%-11% margin, GOP voters agree that:

The US federal government should enact policies that discourage the importation of foreign products made with higher levels of pollution and reward US producers for their cleaner production.

Foreign countries with more pollution should be held accountable when their high pollution products enter the US to ensure US producers can compete fairly.

Further, fully 94% of Republican voters agree that foreign countries with more pollution should be held accountable when their high pollution products enter the US to ensure American producers can compete fairly.

In order to level the “manufacturing playing field,” Republican voters strongly support placing a “pollution tariff” on high pollution imports from China and other countries, and they say would still support it even if it led to higher costs for products they buy, as opponents allege.

Not only do 90% of Republicans support:

Placing a pollution fee on high pollution imports from China and other foreign polluters in order to level the playing field and ensure US manufacturers can compete fairly.

But, a majority (54%) of Republicans agree they would still support a pollution tariff even “if it led to higher costs for some products that you buy.”

Republican support for a “pollution tariff” holds up against strong opposition argument.

When GOP voters are posed with arguments on either side of the “pollution tariff” issue:

Opponents of a pollution tariff on China say that tariffs lead to retaliation and will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers because companies pass their costs onto their customers – and that a trade war leading to price increases will negatively impact the economy.

Supporters of a pollution tariff believe we must hold China accountable for undercutting cleaner American manufacturing jobs, so we must level the playing field and reshore supply chains here in the U.S. – and that            it’s worth paying a little bit more to help restore American manufacturing jobs.

They support the argument in support of pollution tariffs by a whopping 77%-23% margin, with support strongest among “strong” Republicans and “very conservatives.”