Intersection of politics and Internet continuing to grow.

This post was written by Jim Hobart and Glen Bolger.

 

According to a recently released survey from the Pew Internet and American Life Project, 55% of the adult population are now what Pew classifies as “online political users,” or, people who go online to either get information about politics, or to get involved in the political process. When taking a look at the demographics of this group, several key things jump out:

1. Online political users are not overwhelmingly young.While online political users do skew younger than the general adult population, it is not a group dominated by young people. The significant majority (67%) of online political users are age 30-64, compared with just one-quarter (25%) who age 18-29. Of course, adults age 30-64 represent a far greater percentage of the overall population, but the data makes it clear that while seniors (adults age 65+) are not yet using the Internet to get political news (seniors make up just 7% of online political users), everyone else is.

 

2. Online political users tend to be upscale college graduates.There has been a great deal written recently about the increasing importance of online fundraising, and a look at the education and financial demographics illustrate why it is becoming such an important aspect of political campaigns. Fully 40% of online internet users are college graduates, 13% higher than the 27% of the general adult population who graduated from college. The 13% jump is mirrored among households making more than $75,000/year, with 37% of online political users being in that income bracket, compared to just 24% of the general adult population.

3. The growth in the number of online political users shows no signs of slowing down.The percentage of online political users increased 18 points since 2004, and, more importantly, increased 9 points from the spring of 2008 to November/December 2008, when the Pew survey was conducted. With savvy campaigns on both sides of the aisle continuing to work to drive voters to official campaign sites, Facebook, Twitter, and other online resources, the number of online political users is sure to continue to increase in the coming months and years.

Online political users are wealthy, educated adults, ages 18-64. They are a group that looks like it will only continue to grow. Political campaigns on all levels would be wise to aggressively reach out to this increasingly important group.

 

 

The recently released Resurgent Republic survey on health care is so chock full of interesting data, that I’m going to write a couple of blog posts on it this week.  (Note:  I am on the National Survey Research Advisory Board of the organization).

The first observation is what makes health care such a difficult issue for policymakers — the perception that it’s a problem and yet many people are satisfied with their own health care, so don’t change it!  (It’s an easy issue for politicians — voters are concerned and want something done, so therefore so do politicians).

For example, in the survey, 19% say that “health care costs” are their number one financial concern — which tops the list even ahead of retirement (16%), mortgage/rent (13%), and losing their job (12%).   At the same time, 83% are satisfied with the quality of health care they and their family receive.  That poses a conundrum for policymakers — how do you completely change a system in which more than eight out of ten are satisfied.

Many policymakers also focus their efforts on covering the uninsured — and yet the public is focused on controlling costs.  Given three options, 44% say the country should focus on controlling the cost of health care, 25% on improving quality, and 23% on covering the uninsured.

An important note of caution — it is crucial that Republicans be for finding ways to cover more of the uninsured.  Remember — a goal of universal health coverage is NOT the same as government-run health care.  Universal simply means that everyone has it — and that can be done through the private sector in an incremental fashion (from other work I’ve done, people don’t expect that there is an easy solution to covering everyone).

Democrats face two huge challenges on health care — one is that they are going to upset the applecart for a significant number of people who are satisfied with what they have, and then the other is that it will end up costing people more money.  For instance, only 39% prefer a health care reform plan that raises taxes to provide health insurance for all Americans, while 52% back a plan that does not provide health insurance to all Americans, but keeps taxes at the current level.

Uncertainty kills major policy changes.  As Republicans, our job is to shine a bright light on the murky Democratic plan — a plan that will result in higher taxes and less quality, when the public’s goal is to get prices to come down.

(The article was co-authored by Matthew Jason.)

This is the third in a series of blog entries regarding specific voter demographics in California based on a merge of all the statewide interviews conducted by the California Office of Public Opinion Strategies going back to the beginning on 2004. This merge includes a total of over 31,000 statewide interviews.

According to CNN Exit Polls, eighty percent (80{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of California voters under age 25 cast their ballot in favor of Barack Obama in 2008. Only eighteen percent (18{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of this younger audience voted for John McCain. We have seen news articles about President Obama’s Blackberry. We have been told over and over by the media that Obama was the “high tech” candidate who made use of the internet like no candidate ever before. Still, winning eighty percent (80{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of any non-partisan demographic group is an amazing feat.

To really make sense of these numbers, the first issue we need to look at is who these young voters are in California. Included in our data merge are interviews with nearly two thousand three hundred voters (2280) in the 18-24 age range, and some of their demographic attributes are a little sobering for Republicans. Fully thirty-six percent (36{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of the voters we interviewed in this age range were of the Hispanic/Latino ethnic background, and more of them identified themselves as “liberals” (27{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) than identified themselves as “conservatives” (20{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}).

However, a little bit deeper inspection of them reveals a little glimmer of hope. Only forty-percent (40{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of these younger California voters have made a decision to identify themselves with the Democratic Party by registering as such. Granted, this is significantly more than the twenty-five percent (25{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) who have chosen to register as Republicans in the state, but it is quite telling that nearly thirty percent (29{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of these young voters have chosen to register as “Decline To State.” This means these young voters chose to vote Democratic in 2008 but that they have not yet established any firm allegiance to the Democratic Party.

18-24-ca-voters2

It appears that these young voters are either not engaged with public affairs or that they have a very different impression than others in the state. For whatever reason, it is clear that their opinion does not have any real passion behind it. While all voters in the state over the age of 25 have consistently viewed the direction the state is headed negatively over the last five years, voters under age 25 have rated it somewhat positively (48{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} right direction and only 39{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} percent wrong track). However, of the 48{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} positive rating, only 10{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} has any intensity behind it (strongly right direction).

We see very similar results when we look at how these young voters rate the job performance of the California State Legislature. Again, voters over the age of 25 have consistently given the state legislature very poor job approval ratings over the last five years (except for a short period of time in 2007), but voters under the age of 25 give the state legislators a positive rating (50{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve and 33{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove). The significant number here is that only nine percent (9{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of these young voters say they strongly approve of the job being done by their state legislature.

Politics just does not hold a prominent position on the priority list of California’s youngest voters. They appear to be more concerned about their social lives and their careers at this point in their lives. What will it take for candidates and political operatives to catch the attention of these young voters and cause them to focus more deeply on the political arena? Simply put, it will take candidates who can find a way to effectively communicate with them about the issues that hit them where they live, issues that have a real impact on the social lives and careers on which they are currently focused.

Reaching these young voters will not be easy for Republican candidates. It will require them to use on-line communications. It will require them to focus less on social issues like same sex marriage and abortion and more on the economy and jobs. It will require them to think outside the box and come up with messaging that clearly differentiates them from their Democratic counterparts. It will not be easy. However, it can and must be done on a race by race basis if the Republican Party is going to compete for this new generation of voters in the state.

The Pasadena Star News includes a quotation from Neil Newhouse in an article about the DCCC targeting Rep. David Dreier’s seat in 2010.

If Dreier managed to get re-elected in 2008 during one of the toughest races for the Republican Party, it is not likely a Democratic candidate can unseat him in 2010, according to Neil Newhouse, a partner with Public Opinion Strategies.Dreier handily beat Democratic challenger Russ Warner 53 percent to 40 percent in the 2008 election.

The LA Times posted an article about a recent poll conducted by POS and Greenburg Quinlan Rosner that shows the public supports LAPD.

The Times wrote another article based on the poll about Mayor Villaraingosa’s popularity.

KESQ.com and the Times wrote an article based on the poll about how voters stand on gay marriage.

By Neil Newhouse and Jeremy Ruch

Recent surveys by The New York Times/CBS News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal highlight two emerging trends in American public opinion – Americans are increasingly worried about the federal budget deficit, and they’re skeptical about the efficacy of Obama’s economic plans.

The data is pretty clear:

  • When asked about the nation’s most important economic issue, nearly one-in-four respondents (24%) in the NBC/WSJ poll name the federal budget deficit – that’s the highest since 1994.
  • By a 58%-38% margin, those surveyed in the NBC/WSJ poll say that the President and Congress should worry more about “keeping the budget deficit down” rather than about “boosting the economy.”  (That’s a pretty telling sentiment give the state of the economy these days!)
  • Similarly, the NYT/CBS poll shows that by a 52%-41% margin, voters believe “the federal government should NOT spend money to stimulate the economy and should focus instead on reducing the budget deficit and the national debt.”

These two national surveys paint a pretty clear picture of an electorate that is increasingly concerned about the deficit, skeptical of President Obama’s economic solutions and hesitant to embrace his government interventionist policies.

Public Opinion Strategies