What Difference at This Point Did It Make? – Day 3

In our continuing series of posts following the 2016 Conventions, today, we are looking at statements made by the candidates about the state of America today, and how well each described what voters think.

In the survey, respondents were read statements each nominee made during their acceptance speeches at their respective conventions. Voters were asked how well each statement describes what they think. Neither Trump nor Clinton were mentioned by name or associated with either statement. The statements read:


The below tables show the results among Trump, Clinton, and undecided voters on the two-way ballot from the survey that showed Clinton up by nine points.

Trump’s statement described what is on the minds of 78{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of all voters including 93{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of his own voters, 64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Clinton’s voters, and 81{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of voters who are still undecided.

Donald Trump Statement

dt statement

Hillary Clinton’s statement described what is on the minds of 68{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of all voters including 83{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of her own voters. However, in stark contrast to Trump’s statement, just 53{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Trump’s voters, and 56{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of voters who are undecided said Clinton’s statement described what they think about America today.

Hillary Clinton Statement

hrc statement

Across most sub-groups Trump’s take on the state of America was seen as describing what people think “very well” by majorities or near majorities. The same can only be said about Democrats’ and African-Americans’ reaction to Clinton’s statement.

Candidate Statements ({09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Very Well)

statements very well

Trump’s statement was also more likely than Clinton’s to be said to reflect the thinking of key swing voter groups “very well.”

Candidate Statements Among Key Swing Voter Groups ({09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Very Well)

statement swing

*The NBCWSJ poll is conducted by the firms of Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates. The views expressed in this blog are those of Micah Roberts and not necessarily shared by Hart Research Associates or NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.

Public Opinion Strategies