Western States Round-Up

I first posted on the positive trends in Western States last month.  The positive movement witnessed last month is holding.

Obama Approval
President Obama’s approval rating continues its descent in the West.  Last month, we reported a 56{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approval rating, with 37{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapproving of the job he is doing as President.  That marked a ten point drop in approval since taking office.

Obama’s approval rating continues to skid according to our most recent national data (April 7-9), with just over half of Western voters (51{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) registering their approval and now 41{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} expressing disapproval with his job performance.obamajob

In a more unusual finding: Obama’s approval rating has dipped at the same time the mood in Western states has slightly improved.  Thirty-four percent (34{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of Western voters now say the country is headed in the right direction while 62{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} say things are off on the wrong track.  Last month, the mood was 23{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} right direction/67{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} wrong track.  Either Obama is not getting credit for the positive turn, or his approval rating is a lagging indicator that may improve as the mood improves.  We will keep on top of the trend.

mood3
Generic Ballot
The generic Congressional ballot demonstrated continued movement toward the GOP.  Our election night data showed Congressional Republicans losing to Congressional Democrats by ten points in the West (40{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}-50{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}).  Our previously reported national survey (March 10-14) showed the Republican with an eleven point lead.  That trend to the Republican candidate holds in this most recent data, with the GOP candidate maintaining a 12-point advantage (51{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}-39{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}).

generic2

These are encouraging signs for the GOP out West. Trends are important, and the winds are blowing in a GOP way right now.

NOTE: For the purposes of this analysis, we have not included California in the group of Western states.  Western states include: AZ, CO, ID, NV, NM, ND, OR, SD, UT, WY, WA.

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