When more people say their vote is in opposition rather than in support of the president, the party in power loses seats. Biden’s soft numbers on this important question tells us the Democrats are days away from losing the House. And here’s the real problem for the president and the Democrats: Those voting in opposition are not just Republicans, but critical swing sub-groups, including persuadable voters, suburban women, and voters living in swing states.
2022 is likely to be the largest turnout ever in a midterm. Election interest is higher in October than in any previous midterm since this scale was first used in the 1998 midterm. More bad news for Dems. Republican interest (78% very interested) is highest number ever in a midterm. GOP had major gains when their interest hit 70% in 2010. Democrats had major gains when their interest level hit 72% in 2018. Likely major GOP gains coming.
Another way to know Republicans have the edge: A higher number this cycle saying this election is more important to you than past congressional elections. GOP advantages over the Dem are a flip of the Dem advantage over Republicans in 2018.
Swing voters still matter. Republican margins among the 25% of the electorate that is a swing voter matches their margins in 2010 and 2014 as Republicans made major gains in both cycles.