The grim NBC News/WSJ survey: the ‘14 reality is likely worse for Democrats

Democratic after-action reports on their Florida-13 special election loss are clear: they lost because they didn’t turn out the vote.   While there is much parsing on the who, what, when and where of Obamacare, the facts are that Republicans showed up while Democrats didn’t. Take a look at what Alex Sink’s pollster Geoff Garin had to say the day after the election:


The internals of the most recent NBC News/Wall St. Journal show that the Democrats’ turnout problems aren’t restricted just to special elections and that, left unchecked, they will tilt the board heavily in favor of the GOP in ‘14. Take a look at this table comparing the opinions of adults and those voters most interested in the November elections. (**All data from the March 5-9, 2014, NBC News/Wall St. Journal survey.)

Adults Reg. Voters/High Interest in ‘14 elections
Mood of the country 26{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} right direction- 23{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}- (Net -9)
65{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} wrong track 71{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}
President Obama Job Approval 41{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approval- 35{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}- (-14)
54{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove 62{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}
Who do you want to control 44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} GOP – 53{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}- (+14 GOP)
Congress? 43{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democrat 38{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}
Party ID 37{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} GOP – 44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}- (+10 GOP)
43{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Democrat 40{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}
Support the Tea Party movement 24{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of the voters 36{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} (+12!)

If this architecture holds, by every measurement, 2014 will be worse for the Democrats than the national data among adults are showing: ‘14’s voters will be angrier, more disapproving of President Obama, more desiring of a GOP Congress, and a lot more Republican. And Tea Party voters may make up more than a third of the vote.

If this architecture holds, this won’t be a problem for just the Democrats who hold office in traditionally red states, but also for those who hold office in purple states like Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

**The poll was conducted jointly March 5-9, 2014, by Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates; however, this analysis was written independently of NBC/WSJ and of Hart Research Associates.

Public Opinion Strategies