Recent polls have shown the GOP to have a significant edge in enthusiasm regarding the upcoming mid-term elections. Nearly without exception, Republicans are more excited, enthusiastic and energized about voting in the November election than their Democratic counterparts.
The straight-forward conclusion is that this enthusiasm gap will play out at the voting booths in November, resulting in widespread GOP gains, led by a takeover of the U.S. Senate.
But, what if the enthusiasm gap is meaningless?
Two years ago, the same polls that now show the GOP with a marginal advantage on this measure, showed much of the same thing – that GOP voters were significantly more excited about voting in the November Presidential election.
And, what happened?
The enthusiasm gap was taken to the woodshed by the Obama team’s GOTV efforts. In a nutshell, the Democrats turned out voters who were “unenthusiastic,” “unexcited” and not “energized” to vote, rendering the “enthusiasm gap” meaningless.
There’s a significant lesson here for GOP candidates this Fall. Don’t assume that GOP voter “enthusiasm” will carry your campaigns to victory.
A campaign’s “ground-game” is more important than ever, and in order to win key races this Fall, we’re going to need more than just those GOP enthusiastic voters to go to the polls.