Repeated, protracted, bitter fights with Congressional Republicans are Obama’s only hope.

Recent survey results have shown that President Obama’s bungling (the economy, Obamacare, it doesn’t matter) has started to change the partisan architecture. A couple of quick points from the most recent NBC News/Wall St. Journal* data:

✓ President Obama’s job approval has settled in the low-to-mid 40s; the latest NBC News/WSJ survey pegs it at 43%. This result is steady with late November’s 42% and the two-week average. There is a ton of data that shows that the party that holds the White House loses BIG in mid-term cycles when the president’s job approval is under 50%.

✓ The president’s base of hard-core supporters is shrinking. The number of those feeling strongly positive toward the president has shrunk almost every month since Election Day; these voters once totaled 34% of the electorate but are now down to just above two-in-ten voters (22%). If this trend continues, it will be a mid-term gap-closer, with less than anticipated Democratic turnout.

✓ By a 39% (approve) to 58% (disapprove) margin, voters are not happy with the way President Obama has handled the economy. This is only three points off his WORST EVER rating measured in August ‘11.

✓ By a 50%-34% margin, Americans believe Obamacare was a bad idea.

The net effect has been that by double-digits (36%-26%) Americans now think the Republican Party does a better job of handling the economy. AND, a plurality of Americans now prefer a Republican Congress (44%-42%). Importantly, this is only the fourth time since ‘08 that the NBC News/WSJ survey has measured such a result.

Nothing but happy news for the GOP, right? Not so fast: the GOP still has an overwhelmingly upside-down image (26% positive – 51% negative) – only a scant improvement over the shutdown’s low water mark. Note: the realignment to date has come by way of the president’s failings over any GOP groundswell.

These numbers also tell us that the president and his allies in Congress have few cards left to play. Once the White House figures out that foreign treaties and travel – mainstays of any presidential second term – are netting the Democrats little, they will return to one of the few things they have left: doing whatever it takes to stage battles with an unpopular GOP Congress.

*The poll was conducted jointly December 4-8, 2013, by Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research Associates; however, this analysis was written independently of NBC/WSJ and of Hart Research Associates.

Similar Articles

  • Public Education Update
    read more

  • Americans See China And Russia As Adversaries Posing Two Different Threats
    read more

  • A New Look At Ideology
    read more

  • Is social media your friend or a frenemy?
    read more

  • Trump’s numbers tied for his peak high as impeachment talk looms
    read more

Public Opinion Strategies helped us to clarify what we wanted to learn and then conducted research and analysis that shed light even beyond the questions we set out to ask. They were very receptive to our suggestions, responsive to our queries, and flexible when we needed them to be.

Public Opinion Strategies has consistently offered unparalleled advice and spot-on polling that has shaped how and where we spent money and deploy key resources. Additionally, they have always been an excellent steward of limited campaign resources, ensuring we spend wisely and not a dollar more than necessary in order to get the information we need.

Robert Blizzard and Public Opinion Strategies did a great job for us throughout our successful campaign for Congress. Robert gave us accurate data, spot on analysis, and professional advice, all of which were essential to our victory.

Public Opinion Strategies is one of our go-to pollsters when it comes to testing public support for bond ballot measures and other initiative proposals. They are available to provide ongoing consultation with regard to crafting of ballot questions, public outreach messaging, and related efforts.

ACLI has worked with Public Opinion Strategies for decades, through several tough industry battles—often ones in which public opinion does not naturally fall on the side of insurers. Yet Bill and his team consistently provide invaluable strategic advice by refining our messages and helping us frame our issues in a way that makes them understandable and persuasive.

The data from Public Opinion Strategies provided important insight and informed our public awareness campaign. We sincerely appreciate their professionalism and expertise in this arena.

Nicole McCleskey and the team at Public Opinion Strategies have been invaluable to me, both during my campaigns and as Governor of the State of New Mexico. It’s not just the accuracy of their numbers, but guiding the overall strategy that makes them so valuable.

Public Opinion Strategies has been a part of our team in Missouri for more than a decade. With their data and guidance, Republicans here were able to attain a majority in the House in 2002 for the first time in fifty years, and we have been able to grow that majority to the point that we now have a record, veto-proof majority.

In my tenure at two leading business associations, facing huge and complex consumer issues, I have benefitted enormously from the objective advisory skills of Bill and his team. They do their homework, they are rigorous, dispassionate and thoughtful. Turning questions into answers is a clever tag, but it’s also an apt description of the professional talents of the firm.

I consider Public Opinion Strategies to be a part of our team. That is the way we have always worked. They have helped us to understand our needs and fashioned research solutions to meet those needs. They have helped us to meet killer deadlines by being flexible, executing rapidly, and insuring quality. Teamwork is the best way to describe it.

Accuracy, speed, and deep knowledge of key issues and public sentiment are the hallmarks of quality opinion research, and on these measures Public Opinion Strategies consistently delivers. I have had the pleasure of working with Public Opinion Strategies for more than 15 years on dozens of issues, and they are undoubtedly the gold standard.

Public Opinion Strategies’ track record of success and wealth of experience in political campaigns and issue advocacy are why they are one of the most trusted and well respected public opinion firms in Washington, D.C. Their insights and perspectives have helped to inform a wide array of public affairs activities across multiple industries.

Social Media Auto Publish Powered By :