Public Opinion Strategies Research Featured in The Wall Street Journal

This article was written by Aaron Zitner and ran in The Wall Street Journal April 29, 2016.

GOP Turnout, Already Strong, Is Getting Stronger

Republican turnout this primary season is up 64{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} over 2012 levels, new data show, with participation accelerating in recent months as voters in big states got a rare shot to play a meaningful role.

The rise in GOP turnout had been calculated at about 57{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in the aggregate for states that voted through early April. The subsequent boost in what was already high GOP turnout comes as voters in New York, Pennsylvania and several other populous states had the rare opportunity this year in helping to choose the party’s nominee. Rarely has the contest lasted long enough for the outcome in those states to be consequential.

The lengthy competition, combined with the high interest in front-runner Donald Trump, is likely why turnout in New York’s April 19 primary was up more than 430{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} from 2012, according to data compiled by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm.

The analysis found that turnout was up more than 250{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in Connecticut, 320{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in Rhode Island and 97{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in Pennsylvania, three of the five states that voted on April 26, compared with turnout in 2012.

According to the Public Opinion Strategies tally, some 25.1 million Republicans have cast ballots this year, compared with 15.3 million in 2012. Some 3.5 million more Republicans than Democrats have voted.

Democratic primaries have drawn 21.6 million voters, compared with 26.1 million in 2008.

The analysis excludes ballots in several states that held caucuses or party conventions instead of primaries, as well as all non-state primaries.



*Table not included in original article

Public Opinion Strategies