Public Opinion Strategies is releasing results from a new national survey. The results spell trouble for President Biden, and also indicate that Afghanistan is a big challenge for him with the American public. The press release is attached, and below are a couple of quotes and notes on methodology. Also attached please find a chart breaking down average mid-term House results based on historical presidential ratings.
Regarding Biden’s disapproval rating
“As baseball great Yogi Berra famously said, it’s déjà vu all over again. Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating and, more challenging for him, his strong disapproval ratings, are right where Donald Trump’s were just prior to the November 2018 mid-term elections when the party in power lost the House and numerous gubernatorial seats. I would hate to be in charge of candidate recruitment for Democrats, because no Democrat in their right mind and a competitive seat would want to run in this political environment,” noted Glen Bolger, a partner of Public Opinion Strategies.
Regarding the impact of Afghanistan on Biden
“While the impact of foreign policy failures on elections is generally (and rightfully) downplayed, Afghanistan has the potential to be different. Biden’s failures there are viewed as a metaphor for weakness, which, more than any one foreign policy problem, can carry over to his inability to be a strong leader,” said Bolger.
Methodology
The telephone survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies from September 1-8, 2021 with 800 voters nationwide. The survey was completed with 520 cell phone interviews (65%) and 280 landline phone interviews, and has a margin of error of +3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases.
