Psst. The Media Missed it: The Obama Honeymoon just ended.

Here at Public Opinion Strategies, it is axiomatic that a president’s job approval is held captive by the mood of the country.  Between President Obama’s swearing in and early June, national right direction numbers ballooned from 28% up to 46% while his job approval hovered in the low 60s. Since early June, right direction numbers have dropped to 38% and his job approval to 57% (four-survey average).

This is the start of the Obama drop.

It’s the simplest of questions but also the most telling: “Do you think the country is headed in the right direction or is it off on the wrong track?” When Americans are optimistic and believe the country is heading in the right direction, they voice approval for the president.  But when Americans are pessimistic, the president’s support takes a nose dive.

Here’s the rule: Right direction numbers are the leading indicator; they drop first and the president’s job approval soon follows.

A president’s job approval will poll a maximum of 17 points – often less – over the national right direction number.  Need proof?  In October of ‘06, just 26% of Americans believed the country was headed in the right direction and only 38% approved of President Bush.  In October of ‘04, 41% of Americans believed the country was heading in the right direction and 49% approved of President Bush.  The numbers go on and on.

This link is not new.  In October of ‘98, right direction numbers were at 55% and Clinton’s job approval was 65%. In October, ‘96, the numbers were 42% and 56% respectively.

The bottom line is that this is gravity.  And, no president can defy it for long.

Between June 23 and July 12, three-out-of-four national surveys featured on realclearpolitics.com had the national right direction numbers in the thirties, with an average of 38%; two-of-four had wrong track at 60% or higher, and a near-miss of 57% and an average of 57%.

Again, this is the leading indicator.  Thirty-eight percent right direction numbers means President Obama will soon have a maximum job approval of 55% and sinking.

What caused it? Previous posts (More Misery Index) have detailed the rock-solid connection between the economy and the strength of the party in power.  With consumer confidence sinking like a stone and the unemployment rate about to crest the double-digit mark, President Obama has taken ownership of America’s economic woes and the public is figuring it out.

Similar Articles

  • Public Education Update
    read more

  • Americans See China And Russia As Adversaries Posing Two Different Threats
    read more

  • A New Look At Ideology
    read more

  • Is social media your friend or a frenemy?
    read more

  • Trump’s numbers tied for his peak high as impeachment talk looms
    read more

Public Opinion Strategies helped us to clarify what we wanted to learn and then conducted research and analysis that shed light even beyond the questions we set out to ask. They were very receptive to our suggestions, responsive to our queries, and flexible when we needed them to be.

Public Opinion Strategies has consistently offered unparalleled advice and spot-on polling that has shaped how and where we spent money and deploy key resources. Additionally, they have always been an excellent steward of limited campaign resources, ensuring we spend wisely and not a dollar more than necessary in order to get the information we need.

Robert Blizzard and Public Opinion Strategies did a great job for us throughout our successful campaign for Congress. Robert gave us accurate data, spot on analysis, and professional advice, all of which were essential to our victory.

Public Opinion Strategies is one of our go-to pollsters when it comes to testing public support for bond ballot measures and other initiative proposals. They are available to provide ongoing consultation with regard to crafting of ballot questions, public outreach messaging, and related efforts.

ACLI has worked with Public Opinion Strategies for decades, through several tough industry battles—often ones in which public opinion does not naturally fall on the side of insurers. Yet Bill and his team consistently provide invaluable strategic advice by refining our messages and helping us frame our issues in a way that makes them understandable and persuasive.

The data from Public Opinion Strategies provided important insight and informed our public awareness campaign. We sincerely appreciate their professionalism and expertise in this arena.

Nicole McCleskey and the team at Public Opinion Strategies have been invaluable to me, both during my campaigns and as Governor of the State of New Mexico. It’s not just the accuracy of their numbers, but guiding the overall strategy that makes them so valuable.

Public Opinion Strategies has been a part of our team in Missouri for more than a decade. With their data and guidance, Republicans here were able to attain a majority in the House in 2002 for the first time in fifty years, and we have been able to grow that majority to the point that we now have a record, veto-proof majority.

In my tenure at two leading business associations, facing huge and complex consumer issues, I have benefitted enormously from the objective advisory skills of Bill and his team. They do their homework, they are rigorous, dispassionate and thoughtful. Turning questions into answers is a clever tag, but it’s also an apt description of the professional talents of the firm.

I consider Public Opinion Strategies to be a part of our team. That is the way we have always worked. They have helped us to understand our needs and fashioned research solutions to meet those needs. They have helped us to meet killer deadlines by being flexible, executing rapidly, and insuring quality. Teamwork is the best way to describe it.

Accuracy, speed, and deep knowledge of key issues and public sentiment are the hallmarks of quality opinion research, and on these measures Public Opinion Strategies consistently delivers. I have had the pleasure of working with Public Opinion Strategies for more than 15 years on dozens of issues, and they are undoubtedly the gold standard.

Public Opinion Strategies’ track record of success and wealth of experience in political campaigns and issue advocacy are why they are one of the most trusted and well respected public opinion firms in Washington, D.C. Their insights and perspectives have helped to inform a wide array of public affairs activities across multiple industries.

Social Media Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com