Obamanomics: Marginal majority support, but the clock is ticking for results.

Our most recent national survey asked a battery of questions on President Obama’s economic policies and the stimulus. In a nutshell, when it comes to Americans:

  • 55% support it;
  • 56% support it and either believe it will work or hope it will work;
  • 57% believe it will help most Americans, and
  • 50% believe it will help they and their family.

The average of the above tells the story: A majority of Americans currently support Obamanomics – a little more or a little less depending on the wording. President Obama gets props for good intentions and doing something. Anything.

Our survey also shows there is nothing in it for Republicans to do anything other than to point out the Stimulus’ deficiencies and say how they would do different to cure Americans’ economic ills. Straight up, three-out-of-four Republicans (75%) oppose it from the outset – more than half (52%) strongly so.

Just as Republicans form the core of the opposition (this scribe included), Democrats form the rock solid core of Obama’s lackeys – 87% of his partisans support the stimulus package.

So, saying “no” is a good rallying cry, but it won’t be enough for the GOP. The problem for Republicans is that there are still not enough Republicans (Democrats outnumber Republicans 37% to 30%). The GOP needs dissatisfaction with President Obama to brew and fester to expand its ranks.

Where are GOPers going to get more bodies to even the score? The real guts are the folks who are in the middle on the Obama economy; those who are doubtful, split or divided. Where they go over the next year will decide whether or not Obamanomics keeps rolling or leaves the tracks. The Independent-minded voters in the middle make up just short of one-third of the electorate (32%).

These voters could be the GOP’s recruiting ground, but only time and the stimulus results will tell. Independent-minded Americans aren’t fully with Obamanomics, but they are far from being against it. The data show 54% of the Independents support Obama’s policies and hope the policies will work and half (50%) favor the stimulus bill signed into law by President Obama.

But will it work and when? What will happen if it doesn’t?

Forty-five percent of the Independents oppose the stimulus from the get-go, and only 33% say it has started working (55% say it hasn’t). Short of half (47%) say it will help most Americans and 41% say it will hurt most Americans.

These last three data points are important because they gauge the impact of time and economic muscle on voters’ support. Right now, the Independent voters Republicans need to forge a plurality are giving President Obama a narrow pass. But, the clock is ticking for Obamanomics to pay off for Independents. He has four or five quarters to produce or these voters will look elsewhere in the ‘10 mid-terms.

Public Opinion Strategies