McInturff-Harrington Morning Consult Column (6-6-14): Impact of the ACA on the 2014 Congressional Elections

Despite the varying news climate over time, attitudes about the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have been remarkably stable. National surveys from NBC/WSJ, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Washington Post-ABC News consistently show that voters have a net negative opinion about the health care law regardless of the scale used to measure attitudes (Good Idea/Bad Idea, Favorable/Unfavorable, or Support/Oppose). This trend of stronger opposition to the law than support continues to be true in 2014.

But when it comes down to it, will the health care law be a vote issue in the Congressional elections this year? Yes.

Public Opinion Strategies has conducted multiple national polls this year measuring voter attitudes about the health care law and the impact the law may have on reported vote behavior this cycle.

  • Voters report that a Congressional candidate’s position on the health care law will be a factor in determining how they will vote (9% of voters said it would be the most important factor, 51% major factor, 29% minor factor, 10% not an important factor at all). This data further shows the challenge that lies ahead for Democratic candidates this cycle. Voters who say a candidate’s position on the law will be a greater factor in determining how they vote are more opposed to the law.

Support/Oppose Health Care Law by Impact of Candidate’s Position in
Determining Vote for Congress

Most Important
Factor (9%)

Major Factor (51%) Minor/Not Important
Factor (39%)
Support Law 30% 37% 33%
Oppose Law 60% 53% 30%
Net Difference -30 -16 +3
This data is from a national poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Peter Hart released in March, but is consistent and data was replicated on a proprietary national poll we just finished in late May.
  • From our recently released national May poll, the generic Congressional ballot is even within the margin of error (42% Republican candidate/43% Democratic candidate). When voters are presented with the competing frames of “a Republican candidate who supports repealing and replacing the health care law” versus “a Democratic candidate who supports keeping and fixing the health care law” the Congressional vote is dead even (45% Republican Candidate – Repeal/Replace, 45% Democratic Candidate – Keep/Fix). However, what is more compelling is comparing the shift in how Independents vote on the generic vote compared to the health care vote.  A “repeal & replace” position helps Republican Congressional candidates pick up a majority of Independents.

 

Generic Congressional & Health Care Law Ballot Among Independents

Generic
Congressional Ballot

Health Care Law
Congressional Ballot

Republican Candidate 32% 53%
Democratic Candidate 21% 29%
Undecided 39% 12%

These surveys show that a candidate’s position on the ACA does have an impact on how the majority of people are going to vote for Congress this election cycle and it clearly outlines how problematic this issue could be for Democratic candidates in 2014.

Similar Articles

  • Americans See China And Russia As Adversaries Posing Two Different Threats
    read more

  • A New Look At Ideology
    read more

  • Is social media your friend or a frenemy?
    read more

  • Trump’s numbers tied for his peak high as impeachment talk looms
    read more

  • Independents Key to Trump Approval Boost
    read more

Public Opinion Strategies helped us to clarify what we wanted to learn and then conducted research and analysis that shed light even beyond the questions we set out to ask. They were very receptive to our suggestions, responsive to our queries, and flexible when we needed them to be.

Public Opinion Strategies has consistently offered unparalleled advice and spot-on polling that has shaped how and where we spent money and deploy key resources. Additionally, they have always been an excellent steward of limited campaign resources, ensuring we spend wisely and not a dollar more than necessary in order to get the information we need.

Robert Blizzard and Public Opinion Strategies did a great job for us throughout our successful campaign for Congress. Robert gave us accurate data, spot on analysis, and professional advice, all of which were essential to our victory.

Public Opinion Strategies is one of our go-to pollsters when it comes to testing public support for bond ballot measures and other initiative proposals. They are available to provide ongoing consultation with regard to crafting of ballot questions, public outreach messaging, and related efforts.

ACLI has worked with Public Opinion Strategies for decades, through several tough industry battles—often ones in which public opinion does not naturally fall on the side of insurers. Yet Bill and his team consistently provide invaluable strategic advice by refining our messages and helping us frame our issues in a way that makes them understandable and persuasive.

The data from Public Opinion Strategies provided important insight and informed our public awareness campaign. We sincerely appreciate their professionalism and expertise in this arena.

Nicole McCleskey and the team at Public Opinion Strategies have been invaluable to me, both during my campaigns and as Governor of the State of New Mexico. It’s not just the accuracy of their numbers, but guiding the overall strategy that makes them so valuable.

Public Opinion Strategies has been a part of our team in Missouri for more than a decade. With their data and guidance, Republicans here were able to attain a majority in the House in 2002 for the first time in fifty years, and we have been able to grow that majority to the point that we now have a record, veto-proof majority.

In my tenure at two leading business associations, facing huge and complex consumer issues, I have benefitted enormously from the objective advisory skills of Bill and his team. They do their homework, they are rigorous, dispassionate and thoughtful. Turning questions into answers is a clever tag, but it’s also an apt description of the professional talents of the firm.

I consider Public Opinion Strategies to be a part of our team. That is the way we have always worked. They have helped us to understand our needs and fashioned research solutions to meet those needs. They have helped us to meet killer deadlines by being flexible, executing rapidly, and insuring quality. Teamwork is the best way to describe it.

Accuracy, speed, and deep knowledge of key issues and public sentiment are the hallmarks of quality opinion research, and on these measures Public Opinion Strategies consistently delivers. I have had the pleasure of working with Public Opinion Strategies for more than 15 years on dozens of issues, and they are undoubtedly the gold standard.

Public Opinion Strategies’ track record of success and wealth of experience in political campaigns and issue advocacy are why they are one of the most trusted and well respected public opinion firms in Washington, D.C. Their insights and perspectives have helped to inform a wide array of public affairs activities across multiple industries.

Social Media Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com