How To Run Unopposed And Alienate Swing Voters

With every national poll of Democratic primary voters reporting at least 50-point leads against any other probable or improbable Democratic candidate, it is hard to see how Hillary Rodham Clinton will not be crowned the Democratic nominee.

And, the Democratic primary voter data from the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll shows that the recent news stories related to her emails and foundation fund-raising during her time as Secretary of State are not yet hurting her image and standing with those voters.

In fact, some core Democratic sub-groups report even higher positive ratings in the two months between the most recent WSJ/NBC polls – March 1-5 and April 26-30.

chart 1

But, for everyone else and especially with key swing voter groups, these news stories are having measureable negative effects.

  1. In the overall electorate, Clinton’s Wild Ride Continues! – In April, Hillary Clinton’s personal image rating was dead-even at 42{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} positive – 42{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} negative among all adults, down from 44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} positive – 36{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} negative in March and the latest drop in a precipitous descent from February 2013 when she left her post as Secretary of State.

chart 2

  1. Things are escalating quickly – In the two month span between the most recent WSJ/NBC polls – March 1-5 and April 26-30 – Clinton has seen her “very negative” rating sharply increase – from 23{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} to 32{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} among all adults.To put that in context, her “very negative” rating is already higher than either party’s Presidential nominees in mid-October OF THE ELECTION YEAR in the last three presidential cycles!

chart 3

  1.  Importantly, key swing voter sub-groups are becoming more negative – The sub-groups with the largest increases in overall negative ratings include key swing voter sub-groups like Independents, Moderates, Rural voters, and White women under 40.

chart 4

  1. Clinton lacks credibility as an honest person – In the April WSJ/NBC poll, half of Americans (50{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) gave Clinton a poor rating on “being honest and straightforward.”

chart 5

  1. A plurality of voters see her as less ethical than other politicians – In a May 9-12 Fox News Poll, a plurality of voters (44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) said Clinton is “less ethical” than any other politician tested, including a number of Republican 2016 candidates.

image 1

chart 6

Bottom Line
Hillary Clinton has never worn well over time as a candidate. The Democratic primary electorate is not yet flinching in their support for her as the Democratic nominee. But, the recent news stories related to her emails and foundation fund-raising during her time as Secretary of State are seriously damaging her overall image as well as her credibility as an honest person and ethical politician with voters overall and important swing voter sub-groups.

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