Republicans trumpet the further demise of President Obama as evidence of his political and policy failures. This most certainly means sweeping GOP gains come November.

Not so fast.

The President is certainly suffering, yet the Democrats continue to cling to life on the congressional preference ballot leading by a single point (43{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} GOP – 44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} Dem).

Like the majority of Americans today, women have soured on the President with his lowest approval rating recorded to date. The frustration is felt most acutely among white women:

Yet, despite the President’s woes, women continue to vote for the Democrat and have done so even as Obama’s approval numbers tank. As the data clearly suggests, Republicans continue their struggle to attract women voters.

A couple months ago Glen Bolger posted an analysis making the compelling case that 46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} was the magic number for Republican candidates – 46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}, the percent of the women’s vote they needed to get to win.

There are likely a host of factors in play to explain the lack of movement on the preference ballot, including the dynamics in Washington as well as on the campaign trail. We’re not at 46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}, suggesting short and long term challenges in attracting female voters persist. Falling numbers for the President alone will not move women into the GOP column.