Going back a few weeks to the NPR poll, there was some interesting findings that I did not get to (apologies, but there was a death in the family).
One of the last posts I wrote was on the GOP’s new lead on the generic ballot. Just as important is the interest advantage among Republicans — which played out in our favor in both Virginia and Massachusetts.
That interest gap continues to be evident nationally as well. We ask likely voters a simple question:
And, how interested are you in the November elections for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten.
We are consistently finding a significant advantage for the GOP:
Among base Republicans, 54% rate their interest as a “10,” compared to 43% of base Democrats.
Among soft GOPers, 43% rate their interest as a “10,” compared to 34% of soft Dems.
Looking at GOP men, 53% are 10s, compared to 39% of Dem men.
With GOP women, 44% are 10s, compared to 37% of Dem women.
A similar spread is seen ideologically — 52% of conservative voters rate their interest as a 10, compared to 34% among liberals. Moderates are nearly as down as libs — only 37% of mods say they are 10s.
In 2006 and 2008, we saw Dems more likely than GOPers to rate their interest as a 10. For example, in the September 2008 NPR poll done in battleground states, Dem interest was nine points higher than GOP interest — early evidence of the Obama turnout surge that the Dems have not been able to replicate since.
But, with the switch in party control of the White House, there has also been a switch in interest. Republicans are ready to storm the ballot boxes in November, while Democrats seem far more blase.