First 100 Days Have Not Changed Voter Preference for Control of Congress

The April NBC/WSJ survey finds voters prefer a Democrat controlled Congress to a Republican controlled Congress by a margin of 47{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} to 43{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}. That’s no different than where we left off in late October 2016 when all registered voters preferred Democrat over GOP control of Congress by 46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} to 44{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}. And, as the chart below shows, the fundamental structure of the 2018 elections based on which districts are controlled by each party is very stable compared to the results across previous cycles.

Cong pref by CD Party

Preference for a Republican-controlled Congress among voters in Republican-held seats in April is almost exactly where it was in 2016, 2014, and 2012.

The same can be said about the stability in preference for a Democrat-controlled Congress among voters in Democrat-held seats over the past three election cycles.

While a lot has happened over the past 100 days so far on this measure of Congressional elections, the data is very stable.


Polling for The Wall Street Journal and NBC News is conducted by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Fred Yang. This analysis is my own and does not necessarily reflect the views of NBC News, The Wall Street Journal, or Hart Research Associates.

Public Opinion Strategies