In the NPR survey done by GQR and POS (click here for methodology), the GOP advantage in the key 60 Dem districts is significant on the generic ballot. But, the advantage is even greater when campaign interest is factored in.

Looking just at those who rate their interest in the election as a “10” (very high), GOPers have a significant 25 point advantage. Fully 62{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of GOPers rate their interest as a 10, compared to just 37{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Democrats. Even Independents (52{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} 10s) are more interested than Dems.

The gap does close significantly as we go down the scale, but the GOP still has an advantage. Fully 83{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of GOPers rate their interest at 8-10, compared to 74{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Independents and 69{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Democrats. This 14 point enthusiasm gap is extremely significant. It points to the need for Democrats to run very polarizing campaigns in an effort to whip up the interest of their base voters. Right now they are discouraged – expect Dems to have to spend significantly more time, money, and effort turning out their base. Republicans will flood to the polls.

In the 2009 Virginia Governor’s race, our tracking found the enthusiasm gap was worth four additional points for Bob McDonnell – taking what would have been a 55{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} win and turning it into a 59{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} win.

Three or four points from the enthusiasm gap will take Republican candidates in close races from losing with 48{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of the vote to winning with 51{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}.

(The analysis and opinions in this blog post is solely the views of Glen Bolger, and does not indicate analysis or opinions of neither NPR nor GQR.)