Independents Key to Trump Approval Boost
Analysis

Partisan disagreements over the government shutdown in the lead-up to President Donald Trump’s second State of the Union (SOTU) Address cast a cloud of uncertainty over the speech.  In the end, the shutdown came to a close, Speaker Pelosi relented, and the president delivered his third address to a joint session of Congress. Most importantly, […]

Members of the news media have been saying in recent years that American politics is becoming more polarized, with Democrats moving further to the left and Republicans further to the right than they have ever been. Our years of experience conducting the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll along with Hart Research can help quantify this relationship […]

Starting in 2017, the NBC/WSJ poll has tracked two types of key Trump Counties in competitive states: Trump Surge and Trump Flip. The Trump Surge counties are those where Trump outperformed Mitt Romney’s 2012 net vote percentage by 20% or more. And, the Trump Flip counties are the counties that flipped from voting for Barack […]

The 2018 midterm election had the highest voter turnout since 1914, the last year midterm turnout broke 50%, and was way above the average of 40.3% over the last 50 years (1914 turnout was 50.1%, and 2018 was 50.3%). According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in November 2018 (http://www.people-press.org/2018/12/17/most-voters-have-positive-views-of-their-midterm-voting-experiences/) 92% of midterm voters […]

As a pollster, there are multiple positive reasons to enjoy having monthly national surveys.  The two primary reasons are the ability to look at data over time, and also to merge data into huge cell sizes. My partner, Bill McInturff has served as the Republican half of the bi-partisan NBC/Wall Street Journal surveys since 2004, […]

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