Talking to Greg Ip in the Wall Street Journal, Partner Micah Roberts wisely puts concerns about AI into context of the broader increase in distrust we consistently see in polling.

In this era of political politicization, Republicans are a good bit more likely than Democrats to have friends on the other side of the aisle.

With the government re-opening today, here is some important historical context. Yes, Democrats have seen an improvement on the generic ballot DURING previous shutdowns. But, once the shutdown is over, the generic ballot has historically bounced back to where it was PRIOR to the shutdown.

One reason the Mamdani win in New York City is not a huge surprise? Nationally, Democrats now give capitalism a net negative rating for the first time in our tracking (25% favorable/45% unfavorable). That is a net 38 point drop from 2018.

History does not repeat, but it does rhyme. Six years after AOC toppled one giant of New York politics, Zohran Mamdani is poised to do the same. Notably, Mamdani’s national image at this point in his political career is almost exactly the same as AOC’s image nationally at the outset of her career in politics. Only in New York can a 34 year old political candidate from the fringe of their party garner national name ID in the 70% range.