A Recession We Can’t Refuse

Last year ended with lower energy prices and higher economic growth, and consumer confidence was on the rise.  The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit 98.1 this January, its highest mark since January 2004.

image 1

But the Obama economy is the Michael Corleone Godfather: Part III recession:  Just when you thought you were out, it pulls you back in.

image 2

Consumer confidence has dropped from January’s post-recession high water mark to a disappointing 90.7.

image 3


Once again, every attempt to get out of the recession has stalled—and consumers are noticing.  As Richard Curtin, the chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, which publishes the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, noted on May 15,

“Confidence fell in early May as consumers became increasingly convinced that there would be no quick and robust rebound following the dismal 1st quarter…This was not the first time in recent years consumers have abandoned expectations for a faster recovery.”

Toward the beginning of the year, it was looking as though positive economic news was serving to buttress President Obama’s job approval numbers.  After hovering around 42{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} in the Real Clear Politics job approval average for most of 2014, January saw a jump to 46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}.  In January, we speculated if the economy continued to stabilize at this level, the President’s job approval could rise further.  However, with economic confidence once again dropping, the President will be lucky to sustain his current approval numbers.

The economy will likely be the most important factor in Obama’s job approval, and Obama’s job approval could be the single most important factor to the Democrats’ electoral prospects in 2016.  The New York Times predicts that with a job approval rating of January’s 46{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} next Election Day, the Democrats would only have a better than one-in-three chance of retaining the White House.  A drop in approval of five points would sink their chances to worse than one-in-four.

image 4

It is hard to miss the public’s signal about their economic pessimism today compared to January.  We will have to wait six months to a year to see if confidence increases again, stabilizes, or continues to fall.  But if the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index continues to drop, remember, it’s a statistical message:  It means the chances of Hillary Clinton becoming President will end up “sleeping with the fishes.”

Similar Articles

  • Public Education Update
    read more

  • Americans See China And Russia As Adversaries Posing Two Different Threats
    read more

  • A New Look At Ideology
    read more

  • Is social media your friend or a frenemy?
    read more

  • Trump’s numbers tied for his peak high as impeachment talk looms
    read more

Public Opinion Strategies helped us to clarify what we wanted to learn and then conducted research and analysis that shed light even beyond the questions we set out to ask. They were very receptive to our suggestions, responsive to our queries, and flexible when we needed them to be.

Public Opinion Strategies has consistently offered unparalleled advice and spot-on polling that has shaped how and where we spent money and deploy key resources. Additionally, they have always been an excellent steward of limited campaign resources, ensuring we spend wisely and not a dollar more than necessary in order to get the information we need.

Robert Blizzard and Public Opinion Strategies did a great job for us throughout our successful campaign for Congress. Robert gave us accurate data, spot on analysis, and professional advice, all of which were essential to our victory.

Public Opinion Strategies is one of our go-to pollsters when it comes to testing public support for bond ballot measures and other initiative proposals. They are available to provide ongoing consultation with regard to crafting of ballot questions, public outreach messaging, and related efforts.

ACLI has worked with Public Opinion Strategies for decades, through several tough industry battles—often ones in which public opinion does not naturally fall on the side of insurers. Yet Bill and his team consistently provide invaluable strategic advice by refining our messages and helping us frame our issues in a way that makes them understandable and persuasive.

The data from Public Opinion Strategies provided important insight and informed our public awareness campaign. We sincerely appreciate their professionalism and expertise in this arena.

Nicole McCleskey and the team at Public Opinion Strategies have been invaluable to me, both during my campaigns and as Governor of the State of New Mexico. It’s not just the accuracy of their numbers, but guiding the overall strategy that makes them so valuable.

Public Opinion Strategies has been a part of our team in Missouri for more than a decade. With their data and guidance, Republicans here were able to attain a majority in the House in 2002 for the first time in fifty years, and we have been able to grow that majority to the point that we now have a record, veto-proof majority.

In my tenure at two leading business associations, facing huge and complex consumer issues, I have benefitted enormously from the objective advisory skills of Bill and his team. They do their homework, they are rigorous, dispassionate and thoughtful. Turning questions into answers is a clever tag, but it’s also an apt description of the professional talents of the firm.

I consider Public Opinion Strategies to be a part of our team. That is the way we have always worked. They have helped us to understand our needs and fashioned research solutions to meet those needs. They have helped us to meet killer deadlines by being flexible, executing rapidly, and insuring quality. Teamwork is the best way to describe it.

Accuracy, speed, and deep knowledge of key issues and public sentiment are the hallmarks of quality opinion research, and on these measures Public Opinion Strategies consistently delivers. I have had the pleasure of working with Public Opinion Strategies for more than 15 years on dozens of issues, and they are undoubtedly the gold standard.

Public Opinion Strategies’ track record of success and wealth of experience in political campaigns and issue advocacy are why they are one of the most trusted and well respected public opinion firms in Washington, D.C. Their insights and perspectives have helped to inform a wide array of public affairs activities across multiple industries.

Social Media Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com