The Clinton Loss

Even though Hillary Clinton is likely the popular vote winner nationally, Clinton did NOT get what she needed with minorities, leaving millions of votes on the table with African-Americans and Hispanics who were there four years ago for President Obama’s re-election.

And, President-elect Donald Trump actually did marginally worse with White voters than Romney by a point – yet won the Election on Tuesday.

 

White Vote:

Trump got a slightly percentage lower percentage (58%) of the White electorate than Romney (59%), and the percentage of American voters who were White dropped from 72% to 70% over the past four years.  As a result, Trump will end up winning about 3,000,000 fewer White voters than Romney, about 1,500,000 fewer white voters than McCain, and even about 2,000,000 fewer White voters than Bush in ’04.

Clinton’s performance was no better.  She also will end up with about 3,000,000 fewer White voters than Obama – meaning that White Americans voted similarly to how they did four years ago.

 

African-American Vote:

There was a slight downtick in African-American turnout overall.  Trump won 8% of the African-American vote, marginally better than Romney’s 6%.

The key here – Clinton did five points worse with African-Americans – winning just 88% of them compared to 93% for Obama four years ago.  This means Clinton won roughly 2,000,000 fewer African-Americans voters than Obama did in ’12, and actually had fewest AA voters support a DEM nominee since Kerry in ’04.

 

Hispanic Vote:

There was an uptick in Hispanic turnout overall and again, Trump (29%) did marginally better than Romney four years ago (27%).

But, the story again is Clinton.  She did six points worse with Hispanics (65%) than Obama four years ago (71%).  Between the uptick in overall Hispanic turnout and her declining vote share, she ended up with about the same number of Hispanics that Obama won in ’12 in terms of raw vote, but the President-elect earned the vote from about 500,000 more Hispanics than Romney did.

 

 graph

 

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