Public Opinion Strategies

DO stay focused on the big picture. This election is about big things – economy/jobs, spending, keeping taxes from increasing, health care – all of which are related to the growth of the size and scope of government. Read more

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DON’T focus a lot of effort on issue cul-de-sacs like the World Trade Center Mosque or illegal immigration. [...] Read more

Last week, I conducted a national survey for American Action Network.  The two key political environment questions show the significant opportunity Republicans have this year.  While the overall numbers on the President’s approval rating and the generic ballot are good news, one key crosstab highlights the wave that is building.
The generic ballot shows Republicans leading 44%-39%.   [...] Read more

I almost buried the lead.  When I first wrote this blog posting, I closed with what is clearly the two most important paragraphs.  So, I’ve now moved them to just after this next sentence.  If the post seems disjointed, at least the most important points are right up front.
These results The message results below remind campaigns that [...] Read more

Because it is the only message they have.   That doesn’t mean it will move voters.  But, blaming former President George W. Bush is one of the few areas where voters still give President Obama the benefit of the doubt, so Democrats will work with what they have. 
The problem Dems have is that Republicans are increasingly [...] Read more

No matter how the data is sliced, or who slices the data, a clear enthusiasm gap has emerged. I first blogged about the GOP advantage after the Virginia Gubernatorial race here, and after the House Battleground NPR survey here. Other pollsters have written about it. A handful of Democratic thinkers (pollsters, bloggers) have disputed whether [...] Read more

In a poll of 13 Battleground U.S. Senate seats conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for American Crossroads, voters made it clear that they are unhappy with the direction that Democrats are taking the country.  Voters in these Battleground Senate seats support the Republican candidates, and are especially sour on the Democratic incumbents.
One big story is [...] Read more

The Democrats say they have settled on their message arc for the cycle, and it is clearly a bifurcated approach. Nationally, President Obama, the White House, and their water-carrying special interests are going to frame the election as a choice, not a referendum. In specific campaigns, Democratic candidates are going to run as a combination [...] Read more

Elsewheres on this blog, you’ve seen the posts regarding the NPR poll in 70 battleground districts which shows very good news for the Republican effort to take back the House in 2010.  The political environment in those key seats is excellent for Republicans, the enthusiasm gap is significantly in the GOP’s favor, and the basic [...] Read more

Given two points of view about the President’s economic policies, voters in the key 60 Democratic districts overwhelmingly say that those policies are not working.
The survey was conducted for National Public Radio by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQR) and Public Opinion Strategies in 70 swing districts – 30 Tier One Democratic-held districts, 30 Tier Two [...] Read more

In the NPR survey done by GQR and POS (click here for methodology), the GOP advantage in the key 60 Dem districts is significant on the generic ballot. But, the advantage is even greater when campaign interest is factored in.
Looking just at those who rate their interest in the election as a “10″ (very high), [...] Read more