Public Opinion Strategies

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce : an ugly notion that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from great height.”
It’s also a striking metaphor for America’s stagnant job market.  The number of Americans employed in the workforce has dropped by a tenth-of-a-point per month since February.
According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, in February,  58.6% [...] Read more

Public Opinion Strategies in conjunction with Democratic firm Momentum Analysis, conducted a three-day online discussion among Walmart Moms (defined as voters with children age 18 or younger living at home and who shop at Walmart at least once per month) in five key states: FL, NV, OH, PA & VA.
Our two firms have been closely [...] Read more

Rather than writing multiple short blog posts, here are some quick hits:
Delusional Democrats  Read more

I have been asking likely voters in general surveys which party controls Washington. The results have been staggeringly consistent no matter where the survey is completed. Approximately one-third say the Democrats control Washington, one-third say the Republicans do(!), ten percent say both/neither, and [...] Read more

Economic growth is like gravity for campaigns: poor Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth sinks an incumbent while strong growth is a boon.
Check out http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=274 for a ton of historical data.
We’re talking about “real” GDP growth, not “nominal” GDP growth.   Real GDP growth is an apples-to-apples comparison that factors out inflation.    Example: the Obamanomics crowd is [...] Read more

We’ve documented the impact gas prices can have on presidential re-election numbers: when the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is $2.43 or higher (in today’s dollars), the party that holds the White House ultimately loses the White House.
See http://pos.org/2012/03/pain-at-the-pump-not-good-for-obama/ for more.
If you doubt it, compare the price at the pump one-termers Jimmy [...] Read more

Pain at the pump: Not good for Obama
The price of gas has gone nothing but up over the last month; fifty cents per gallon, or ten percent, over the last year.
Modest economic growth, nixing the Keystone Pipeline and Iran’s continued saber-rattling over its desire to have the bomb all have one thing in common: More [...] Read more

It seems like we are being bombarded with what sounds like great economic news every day: the Dow is poised to break 13K, the unemployment rate is dropping like a stone and the Democrats are giddy over the prospect of President Obama’s re-election.
Not so fast.   The economic pain Americans have been suffering has received a [...] Read more

A new national survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for Crossroads GPS finds that President Obama’s Jobs Bill is polarizing.  Voters are evenly split on whether or not they support it, they overwhelmingly tell Congress to look at it more in-depth rather than pass it now, and they are evenly split on whether raising taxes [...] Read more

This past week, my wise and insightful partner Glen Bolger posted a blog entry labeled, “The Tipping Point.” It is definitely worth reading.
The premise of the bit is while a majority of voters have become disapproving of the President, there is still a well of good will toward the President personally.   A series of data [...] Read more

Sorry sports fans, this blog post is not about a new NCAA football conference (although it could be).  Instead, it’s about the nine states that George W. Bush won in 2004 but flipped over to Barack Obama in 2008.  The states: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.  These are the purplest [...] Read more