New Health Care Reform Polling: Democratic leadership versus Democratic ‘no’ votes

New Health Care Reform Polling: Democratic leadership versus Democratic ‘no’ votes

“Democrat leadership districts are from Mars, Democrat ‘no’ vote districts are from Venus.”

Two new Public Opinion Strategies’ polls out today show…Those Members of Congress in the 36 ‘no’ vote Democratic congressional districts face substantial pushback from their constituents and significant electoral peril if they vote ‘yes’ on the health care reform bill.  The Democratic leadership’s constituents support significant health care reform.

•    Opposition to the proposed House health care reform bill is very high in the 36 ‘no’ vote Democratic districts (35% Support/60% Oppose).  Intensity of opposition is significant.

•    The plurality of voters in the 36 ‘no’ vote Democratic districts say if their Democratic Member of Congress votes to pass the current health care bill they would be less likely to vote for them in November (23% more likely to vote/43% less likely to vote).  In the Democratic leadership districts, a Member’s vote on the health care reform bill makes no difference for a plurality of voters in how they plan to vote in November (34% more likely/23% less likely/40% no difference).  However, in these Democratic leadership districts a vote ‘yes’ on the health care reform bill is a net positive.

•    Voters’ expectations about the proposed House health care reform bill are very negative in the 36 ‘no’ vote Democratic districts compared to voters in the six Democratic leadership districts.

•    If the health care reform bill is passed in Congress, for those Members in the 36 ‘no’ vote Democratic districts a ‘yes’ vote could easily have a negative impact on their bid for re-election. The generic congressional ballot shifts to a significant double digit margin advantage for the Republican candidate who proposes repealing and overturning the health care reform bill with half of voters saying they would vote for the Republican candidate over the Democratic incumbent who votes to pass the bill (50% Republican candidate/38% Democrat candidate).  A ‘yes’ vote on health care reform in the six Democratic leadership districts has no impact on people’s vote intention.

Click here to see Memo (PDF)

Click here to see Interview Schedule (PDF)