The West proved to be a pivotal battleground n the 2008 elections, both at the presidential level and in the success of Democrats to boost their majorities in the House and Senate.  Yet, current polling data seems to indicate that Western voters may be laggards when it comes to their support of all things Democrat.

Mood of the West
The mood of Western voters has not rebounded as quickly or to the extent it has in other parts of the country.  While the nation’s mood improved from 11% right direction/76% wrong track pre-election to 31% right direction/63% wrong track in current data, Western voters only registered a 23% right direction/67% wrong track – a significant difference.¹

Obama Approval
As Obama prepared to take office in early January, Westerners like voters across the country expressed more optimism about an Obama Administration, providing him with a pre-inaugural approval score of  67% approve/14% disapprove.²

But, mirroring his national erosion of support, Obama’s approval ratings have sagged a bit over the last 60 days, dropping a full ten-points to 56% in the West since Obama assumed office.  Fully 37% of Western voters now register a disapproval rating. (NPR, March survey)

Generic Ballot
While election night data showed Congressional Republicans losing to Congressional Democrats by ten points in the West (40%-50%), current polling not only shows the generic GOP candidate with a 50%-39% lead in the West, but tied (42% each) with the generic Democrat on the national level (NPR, March survey). Naturally, we will look to future polling to confirm the shift but, clearly, there is a trend.

These trends are harbingers of good news for Republicans.  Without question, Western voters were angry, frustrated and fed-up in 2008… and they came out to prove it on election day.  Even though GOP candidate paid a price at the polls in 2008, recent data shows the GOP picking up some needed ground.  Could Democrats’ success in the West be fleeting?

NOTE: For the purposes of this analysis, we have not included California in the group of Western states.  Western states include: AZ, CO, ID, NV, NM, ND, OR, SD, UT, WY, WA.

1    Survey conducted by POS and GQRR on behalf of National Public Radio, 800 registered voters, March 10-14, 2009.
2    Survey conducted by POS and Hart Research on behalf of NBC News/Wall Street Journal, 1007 adults, January 9-12, 2009.

Poll after poll shows that fixing the economy and getting people back to work is the number one issue on voters’ minds these days. But, our recent NBC/WSJ survey shows that 61{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of the country is concerned the federal government will spend too much money trying to boost the economy and as a result will drive up the budget deficit.

And, don’t be fooled that voters don’t “get it” when it comes to the budget deficit. In the January NBC/WSJ poll, by a two-to-one margin (61{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}-32{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) Americans said they think of the budget deficit as a real and important number that has a direct effect on the average citizen, rather than a bookkeeping and governmental number that does not have a direct impact on people.

In fact, in another national survey we recently conducted on behalf of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, fully two-thirds of voters (66{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) perceive the growing budget deficit and national debt as a “very big threat” to our country and our future. They ranked this issue at the top of a list of threats that included jobs moving overseas, hostile countries developing nuclear weapons, our education system not keeping pace with the global economy, and global climate change.

However, like everything else these days, it’s not that simple…voters have mixed feelings about WHEN we should address our budget problems. Forty-seven percent (47{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) say “we must act now to address the deficit and national debt. Our economy will not be truly stable until we begin to solve these looming problems that threaten the long-term health and security of the American economy.” On the other hand, 43{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} say “given the current recession and other economic challenges, this is not the time to require additional sacrifices…Instead, we should address these issues after the economy turns around.”

Yet, there is some consensus around how we should approach dealing with our federal budget problems: That is, the more minds, the better. In the same Peterson Foundation poll a majority (56{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}) of voters say they would prefer a bi-partisan commission to develop a package of reforms that Congress would be required to vote on its entirety, with limited or no opportunity to make changes, compared to 30{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} who say they would prefer the usual Congressional process.

Further, 61{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of voters (including 57{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Democrats, 66{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Independents, and 63{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Republicans) agree that in addition to Members of Congress and senior officials from the Obama administration, the special bi-partisan commission should also include several independent experts on the federal budget and federal programs because these experts will bring additional knowledge and perspective and will not be as influenced by politics and political pressure.

Voters are clear: The national DEBT does matter. They want many minds working on the problem…so the question isn’t IF we should deal with it, the question is WHEN do we deal with it?

The current Misery Index (the unemployment and inflation rates combined) is 8.34 and rising. The unemployment rate alone was 8.1{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222}. While history shows the unemployment rate can drop one point in three months once it comes off its peak, it also shows that it then takes six to nine months to drop every point thereafter.

Do the math; it hasn’t peaked yet. This alone, may assure yet more change in the 2010 election.

Of the 15 midterm elections held since 1950, 13 have been “change” elections in which the party that held the White House lost seats in the House and Senate; only two have been status-quo elections where the White House party gained seats. It would be easy to dismiss this as Americans having a structural push toward the party out of power, but a review of the economic data shows that the party out of power had A LOT OF help in their midterm wins.

The average Misery Index just prior to election day (October) for “change” elections was 10.1 while the average Index going into status-quo elections was 6.86. More striking is that the President’s party lost an average of 26 seats in these “change” midterms. In only three of twelve elections were there single-digit losses, the rest double-digit losses in the House, with a high of 52 seats in ‘94. The average party out-of-power loss with a double-digit Misery Index is 22 House seats.

The two status-quo midterms were ‘98 and ‘02 each with 5.99 and 7.73 Indexes respectively. While much has been blamed on GOP overreaching during the Clinton impeachment prior to the ‘98 midterms, the Democrats also had a rocking economy. The unemployment rate was a mere 4.5{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} (again, compare that to the 8.1{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} at the end of February) and America was enjoying only 1.49{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} inflation in October prior to election day.

Much of the impeachment’s impact on the ‘98 Democratic midterm success is the stuff of urban myth.

And while the 2002’s GOP success has been discounted as a post 9/11 “war rally,” the GOP also benefitted from favorable penmanship in their new districts coming out of the 2000 Census (election day netted the GOP six house and two senate seats). While the economic environment as measured by the Misery Index was no walk in the park, neither was it toxic.

This isn’t a done deal though, Ike lost seats in 54 with a 4.96 Index and Bush lost seats in ‘06 with a 5.71 Index. Bush lost seats on the back of an unpopular war; Ike’s Misery Index was “padded” by deflation when the Democrats picked up 48 seats in ‘56.

As of March, America is rising to the sweet-spot of a “change” cycle. A double-digit Misery Index in October ‘10 will virtually insure double-digit Democratic losses in the House.

While there are clearly some glimmers of hope for the GOP in the latest NPR survey, there is also some major cautionary notes. The biggest caution of all is that – on four major issue battles, the Democrats have the advantage.

This analysis results are based on a bipartisan survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies together with Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research for National Public Radio, which are not responsible for these conclusions.

Questions 12-15 from the survey matched up the GOP message on an issue against the Democratic message on an issue. The Democratic message won by between six to eleven points on topics ranging from taxes to energy to health care and to the deficit.

This Democratic issue advantage – despite a tie on the generic ballot, and a softening in voter approval for President Obama and his economic policies – underscores the continued weak state of the GOP brand. Given our issue problems in the last four years, this is not a surprise. It underscores that Republican candidates have a significant hurdle to overcome – they have got to work to be credible on issues.

Candidates need to work for new ideas on policies. We must show that we understand the challenges people are facing in this economy. While our party must always retain its anti-tax foundation, simply saying that tax cuts will solve every problem has very little credibility with swing voters.

On an issue like energy, we can’t just be for more of the same. While additional domestic drilling and more nuclear are both supported, we have to be just as passionate about encouraging alternative sources of energy – or we just appeared stuck in the rut of the last century. While our candidates want to hearken back to Ronald Reagan, remember that Reagan offered hope and passion for the future. We must look forwards, not backwards.

Democrats (or would they prefer it if I wrote “Democratics”?) are biting off more than they can chew. But for the GOP to simply stand around and wait for the Dems to self-destruct is not a blueprint for victory. We must take advantage of the opportunities they give us by developing new alternatives and ideas. Voters remain skeptical – and it’s our job to give them reasons to take a second look at us on issues.